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"Since the beginning of March, the ruble is uncertain and timid, but it is progressing from 0.47% to the US dollar and 1.1% to the euro. The second half of March will be rich in important economic and political events that will affect the ruble.
One of these important events will occur in the oil market. Ministerial meeting to be held on March 18 in Baku
On March 20, the US Federal Reserve Committee will decide on the interest rate. The world is waiting impatiently and impatiently for the Fed to raise the interest rate again or keep it unchanged. We believe the interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in March is unlikely.
Expectations of this decision may lead to further volatility of the ruble exchange rate, but if the Fed refuses to increase it, the Russian national currency will then have a chance to strengthen.
Two days later, on March 22, the Bank of Russia will vote on the key rate. We believe that the increase in the key rate at the next meeting of the Governing Council of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is very unlikely. The inflation rate in February slowed compared to January, while the price of oil remains high. Therefore, most likely, the key rate will remain at the current level of 7.75%. The impact of this decision on the ruble remains difficult to badess, but it is more than likely that the comments that accompany it will affect the price of the Russian currency.
The European Central Bank will not meet during the second half of March. However, the situation around Brexit is expected to affect the euro. The postponement of the UK's exit from the European Union could have a positive impact on the euro, which will therefore negatively affect the exchange rate of the ruble against the single European currency.
Until the end of March, neither the strong growth, nor the collapse of the ruble, we do not expect.
The exchange rate of the dollar over the next two weeks we expect between 65 and 67 rubles, and the euro – between 73.5 and 75 rubles.
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