HSE economists: Real wages in Belarus surpassed Russian

Real wages in Belarus exceeded wage indicators in Russia, according to RBC

Economists compare dollar wages in Russia, CIS countries and Eastern Europe, but also in China and Brazil in terms of power parity of purchase (purchasing power parity). In the calculations, the authors used the World Bank's 2011 PPP data, as well as the exchange rate and inflation rate in the countries considered in the following years. The Russian pay level remains higher than that of most CIS countries – in 2017, its average monthly size was US $ 1,640 in PPP, estimated at the Higher School of Economics. The only CIS country that has overtaken Russia is Belarus, where the average salary of PPS reached $ 1,648 last year.

Competition with Minsk

In 2011-2014, Russia continues to outperform Belarus in terms of wages. But gradually, the gap has narrowed: so, in 2011, it was $ 338, and in 2014 – $ 95. After the 2015 results (the first after the devaluation of the ruble), Belarus progressed: the average salary for the PPP was 1556 dollars and Russia 1530 dollars. Although in 2016, Russia regained its position (1561 dollars against 1517 dollars), Belarus again advanced a year later, but insignificantly – the gap of 8 dollars became minimal for the period considered (the name in Belarus in 2016 was taken into account). 19659006] As noted during a conversation with RBC, researcher of the Belarusian Center for Research and Economic Education (BEROC) Dmitry Kruk, in 2017 in Belarus, real growth in real wages was recorded, but not Radical (according to Belstat, 7.5% pr "The peak of real wages fell in mid-2014, then they fell for three years, until they resume [рост] there. last year, approximately from the second quarter, "said the expert.

The situation in Russia

In 2015, real wages in Russia fell by 9% compared with the previous year. 39, the year before, experts from the Higher School of Economics recalled, referring to Rosstat.In the following years, it has progressed at a slow pace: the increase was + 0.8% in 2016 and + 2.9% in 2017. The nominal growth of these years was respectively 5.1, 7.9 and 6.7%. In 2014-2015, the devaluation of the ruble led to a fall in labor compensation in Russia, according to economists.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects the real wage growth rate to slow down from 6.3% in 2018 to 0.8% in 2019. According to ministry forecasts (* .pdf), first because of the high base of 2018, because the wages of social workers (they fell under the decrees of May 2012) were brought back to the target level and the minimum wage has been raised. Other reasons may be the acceleration of inflation and a change in the timing of public sector wage indexation (from 1 October 2019 instead of 1 January, as this year). In 2020, wages will increase by 1.5%, 2.3% in 2021 and 2.8% over the next three years, predicts the Ministry of Economic Development

The countries closest to Russia in Average monthly wage terms are Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan: in 2017, payment was 76% of the Russian indicator ($ 1252 per PPP). In general, in all CIS countries, with the exception of Belarus, comparable wages are lower than in Russia. In Ukraine, previously decided to withdraw from the CIS, the average salary for the PPP is also regularly lower than the Russian indicators. In 2017, it was 1074 dollars (65% of Russians)

Eastern Europe and BRICS

Among the countries of Eastern Europe, Russia is lower in terms labor compensation for PPP countries such as Poland ($ 2343)), Croatia ($ 1950) and Hungary ($ 2,107) are the result of monitoring. Bulgaria and Romania lag behind in terms of wages, but in recent years the difference in wages in Russia and in these countries is declining rapidly, according to experts.

For the two BRICS partners discussed, Russia is ahead of wages. In China, at nominal exchange rates, wages exceed Russian wages, but in the transition to PPP calculations, Russia maintains a higher rate, say experts at the Higher School of Economics. Thus, in 2016 (there are no comparable data for 2017 for China), the average salary in China was 1461 dollars and in Russia 1561 dollars. But the gap is also decreasing: in 2011, it was over 450 dollars, and in 2016 – 100 dollars. In Brazil, the average wage last year only reached 1407 dollars – its level of labor compensation in Russia is more stable.