Investors substitutes for the import – Mail News

In 2018, international investors withdrew Russian funds a record amount since 2013. Total outflows exceeded $ 1 billion and have become one of the worst indicators among developing country funds. At the same time, due to strong demand from domestic investors, Russian stock indexes were among the best.

According to Kommersant's estimates, based on data from BofA Merrill Lynch, which takes EPFR data into account, outflows of investors' funds from funds destined for the Russian market in the last three weeks have risen. to 330 million US dollars. lost only in 2013 – $ 3.1 billion

The negative attitude of foreign investors towards Russia remained unchanged for most of the year. Only in January, Russian funds have recorded an investment of more than $ 0.5 billion, and then the market has covered two powerful output waves. Foreign investors made $ 700 million in the spring, but the summer affair was replaced early in the fall by a new flight of investors, still in progress.

Fund movements in Russian funds only in the first half of the year were part of the overall trend of emerging markets. According to Kommersant estimates, in less than 12 months, emerging market funds have attracted more than $ 50 billion, or $ 12 billion less than revenues in 2017. Chinese funds have recorded the largest inflows. the BRIC countries (31 billion USD) and more than 500 million additional USD paid by Brazilian funds. Cash outflows were only recorded in Indian funds, of which nearly $ 3.5 billion was withdrawn during the year.

The abnormal behavior of investors in the Russian market is due to the geopolitical context of the country.

At the end of January, the US Treasury Department released a "Kremlin List", which included Russian officials and prominent businessmen. In April, the White House imposed sanctions on the people on this list and their companies. In August, senators introduced a bill to the US Congress on new anti-Russian sanctions, with additional restrictions imposed by the state's state department.

"The sanctions against RusAl and several other companies in April and the threat of sanctions against state banks have led to the collapse of Russian equities and the risk of new restrictions have frightened potential investors," said Alexei Debelov, partner of FP Wealth Solutions.

During the last months of the year of pessimism, investors added oil prices.

According to Reuters, the price of oil from the North Sea dropped Friday to 53 dollars a barrel, 10 percent less than the previous week's close and 37 percent lower than in early October. According to badysts, investors have long been calm against fluctuations in oil prices. However, after the levels of $ 60 and $ 55 per barrel were breached, this factor began to dominate the market.

However, despite the flight of foreign investors, the stock market indicators of the Russian Stock Exchange were among the best. The index of the Moscow Stock Exchange, calculated in rubles, added more than 11%, while the RTS index in dollars fell by only 7%. Most other stock indexes in developing countries have lost 10 to 28% since the beginning of the year. European indices fell by 16 to 20% over the same period, while US indices fell by around 8%.

The stability of the Russian stock market is linked to strong demand from domestic private investors. According to Investfunds, nearly 30 billion rubles have been transferred to equity and mixed investment funds for eleven months of the current year – a record amount in the entire history of funds of these categories. Significantly increased investment in equities and wealthy Russians.

According to the agency Frank RG badysis, over the past year, the volume of investments of citizens in shares has reached 560 billion rubles.

"Judging by the statistics about the attraction exercised on mutual funds, the retail investor has gone from bonds to stocks, getting a higher dividend yield. This has ensured the sustainability of our market, "said Ravil Yusipov, Deputy Director General of the UK Government.

However, market participants are doubtful about maintaining high fund attrition rates for equity funds. According to Ravil Yusipov, the devaluation of the ruble can help ruble stock prices a bit, but will not help to determine price behavior with GDP growth of only 1% and inflation exceeding 5%. Therefore, market players rely on the return of at least some external investors that will be guided by fundamental market indicators.

According to Evgeny Linchik, Managing Director of Sberbank Asset Management, the Russian market again undervalued compared to their counterparts, and the eventual resumption of oil prices, as well as positive changes in the economy or geopolitics will be welcomed by investors.

Vitali Gaidaev