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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed its earlier forecast and indicated that December to February with a probability of 75-80%, a hot phenomenon will form El Nino. Its intensity will not be as high as in 2015-2016, when droughts and floods had caused a shortage of food and drinking water for about 100 million people in southern Africa, Asia and America Latin.
Hot phenomenon El Niño ("Boy" from the Spanish) and a similar cold phenomenon Nina ("Girl") – two phases of the Southern Oscillation, temperature fluctuations of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño and Nina affect global temperature, precipitation and weather in many parts of the world. In particular with El Niño the generally badociated years are abnormally hot in terms of global average temperature.
According to the latest WMO data, the sea surface temperatures in a distinct part of the tropical Pacific Ocean 'already correspond to the levels characteristic of a weak phenomenon El Nino, although the corresponding atmospheric regimes have not yet formed. "The probability of a full El Niño between December 2018 and February 2019 between about 75 and 80%, and the probability of its preservation in February-April 2019 is about 60 percent.
Sea Surface Temperatures East Central since October 2018, the tropical tropical ocean has reached levels characteristic of a low El Nino. However, the atmosphere has not yet responded to this additional heat, and winds in the upper atmosphere, cloud systems, and sea-level pressure regimes do not yet reflect the characteristics of nature. El Nino. According to model-based projections, this will change in one or two months.
World Meteorological Organization
Meteorologists also noted that, according to a preliminary seasonal climate forecast for this winter, temperatures would be above normal in most parts of Asia, Europe, North America, Caribbean, Africa, Australia, Indonesian Archipelago and South America.
Under or near the standard, the temperature will be in parts of southern South America, the South East North America, in some areas to the northwest Europe and South Central region of Asia.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for the Caribbean, Central America and the north. South West and the south of the South American continent, on the coastal islands South East Asia, in the southern part of the Indonesian archipelago, on some South Pacific islands and on South West and in the eastern equatorial region of Africa. More precipitation is expected in the south and to the northwest North America South East South America, in the center, the north and South West regions of Asia and Europe. Such a preliminary forecast is based on climate model data and is constantly updated.
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