[ad_1]
-12% in the last seven days. Will oil continue to collapse during the new week? On Friday, for the first time since October 2017, raw materials cost less than $ 60 per barrel. And since early October, the decline has been close to 30%. It is feared that this four-year-old scenario will be repeated when the price of oil has fallen below $ 30. Does the national economy expect the crisis to recur? Alexander Rbadokhin understood.
"It's great that oil prices have collapsed (thanks, President T)," Twitter post Donald Trump would be another example of praise if oil had not really fallen at a rapid pace, especially as record production in the United States and Saudi Arabia had been dazzling. And if, in this way, the Saudis thank Trump for the public support of the authorities of the Kingdom in the case of the murder of the journalist Jamal Hashkadzhi (Khashokji), suggests Alain Sabitov, Freedom Finance Analyst: "There is an opinion on the market that the United States has more influence over Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's plans to reduce production are under threat. As a result, market panic sells futures on oil. It is clear that in such circumstances, Saudi Arabia is no longer in a position to argue with Trump. "
There are other explanations for the fall of oil: easing of Iranian sanctions, actions of traders on the stock market. However, the record volumes recorded by Saudi Arabia do not fall under the scope of the agreement on the reduction of oil production. The 2016 agreement was signed by the biggest manufacturers, including Russia, and it seems that it is becoming progressively obsolete. Senior Analyst at Forex Club Group Valery Polkhovsky. However, it will be possible to talk about this only after the OPEC meeting next week. "The fact that countries will gradually increase their production and withdraw from this agreement has long been discussed. The OPEC summit on December 6th will be a very interesting moment. On what will they agree, will they proceed to a further reduction in production, how will OPEC react to the latest drop in oil prices, what decisions will be made, what will it be? very important, "says Polkhovsky.
But what if the market players, in the context of a sharp drop in prices, succumb to panic, as was the case in 2014, and start fighting not for the price of the barrel, but for the market share? Will the oil go down to $ 40 The level of energy reserves in developed countries is now lower than it was at the time and, therefore, it is too early to establish an badogy Director of the Ernst & Young Oil and Gas Center in Moscow Denis Borisov. But in any case, the next year will be difficult for oil producers. "It is clear that US oil production will continue to grow in order to close the gap, which is in the form of a supply surplus for next year. Of course, this can be corrected by a further decline in production in Iran and Venezuela, or OPEC + will have to take measures to limit production. Otherwise, the coming year may be very difficult, "concluded Borisov.
For Russia, $ 60 per barrel and even $ 50 would not seem critical, because the budget is $ 40. However, a new fall will mean an outflow of investment and a halt to any economic growth, according to Director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis of FBK Igor Nikolaev. According to the expert, a fall below 50 USD would lead to a crisis of great magnitude:
GDP is falling – it's a crisis. We have already been there more than once. It is a freeze of wages, a rise in prices, because the price of oil down is the fall of the ruble. We depend on imports, despite our best efforts. In general, all the most negative aspects of the crisis appear.
However, badysts believe that it is too early to panic. The price of raw materials – the indicator is too unpredictable. Last year alone, we could hear prophecies about the return of oil to $ 100 and reporting on the decline of the era of expensive raw materials. The main thing that badysts say is that falling oil prices will not lead to a reduction in gasoline and diesel fuel at Russian petrol stations.
[ad_2]
Source link
