The shock is quite acceptable: what will happen to the ruble after the May holidays?

The Russian currency has quietly faced the threat of new sanctions and investors have voluntarily invested in the public debt. What will change in the second quarter and what surprises can we expect from the exchange rate after the May holidays – in the matter RIA Novosti.

In late March and early April, the national currency halted the upward trend, plunging because of the fact that the United States remembered the "hellish sanctions". However, badysts have immediately ensured: all these investors have already taken into account the price and the ruble is able to level the risks. So it happened. At the end of the month, the ruble stabilized, approaching the 63.6 mark for one dollar.

Nevertheless, May holidays will change the situation: long weekends – freedom for speculators and non-professionals.

From May 1st to May 15th, all the main actors will go on vacation. "Speculators and non-professional investors will try to change the market in order to profit from volatility. As a result, the ruble can be a little cheaper, "said Sergey Korolev, head of customer relations at Zerich Capital Management.

However, a weakening, if it occurs, will be short term, as there is no fundamental reason for this.

The barrel of Brent costs more than 74 dollars, a maximum since November. And, apparently, prices will continue to rise: the market is facing a shortage of supply because of Washington plans to totally ban the purchase of raw materials from Iran.

But this is not the only argument in favor of the national currency. The inflow of portfolio investment in Russian badets, especially in the free zones, is equally important. Foreign players, eager to earn money with high yielding government bonds, sell the currency and drive up the ruble.

Analysts point out worries about the outlook for the global economy have eased. Investors are not in a hurry to transfer capital from emerging market badets to more reliable badets. The stimulus and rhetoric of the Central Bank.

We now have a high policy rate, which ensures the attractiveness of investments in government bonds. The regulator reports that the rate will begin to fall soon. This makes investors want to come to Russia before that happens.

Tatyana Evdokimova

Chief Economist, Nordea Bank

In the absence of fundamental reasons for the weakening of the ruble, geopolitical risks and sanctions have been relegated to the background. three six months, the national currency will continue to strengthen and may reach the level of 62.50 dollars paired with the dollar, provided by Nordea Bank.

Beginning May 6, the Ministry of Finance plans to significantly increase foreign exchange purchases as part of the fiscal rule. But, as Korolev notes, this does not affect the Russian monetary unit too much.

He sees the achievable level of 63 rubles for a dollar in the second quarter, in the absence of geopolitical stress and a high and confident oil price.

"Talk about some a marked weakening of the ruble in the near future is not necessary, as the balance of payments remains positive, which means that the influx of currency in the country is preponderant, said Andrei Kochetkov, senior badyst of the company Otkritie Broker. – In addition, multi-month international reserves exceed the country's total external obligations. As a result, we expect currency fluctuations of between 62.5 and 65.5 rubles. "

Although from the point of view of macroeconomics, there should be no surprises, some risks remain. Bloomberg Agency, referring to Republican Senator Marco Rubio, notes that the US Congress "is gradually losing interest" for restrictive measures against Russia. But badysts do not rule out the revitalization of Congress members before the end of the year, as presidential elections in the United States are scheduled for November 3, 2020.

"As all recent sanctions initiatives are mainly related to Russia's alleged interference in the elections, the anti-Russian sentiment within the American elite will intensify," he said. Tatyana Evdokimova from Nordea Bank.

Experts point to another major risk: the decline in the futures market. Market players think that oil will be expensive in the next three months and that it will fall in nine months.

"This is the risk of the end of the second, the beginning of the third quarter: the shock is quite acceptable. If this scenario, which has been promised by the main players, is realized, then of course, our currency will not hold at 63-64 against the dollar and will weaken to 66%, "warns Mr. Korolev.