US currency moves to Kerch Strait

The worsening of relations between Russia and Ukraine, provoked by an attempt to pierce Ukrainian warships in the Sea of ​​Azov, led to a marked weakening of the Russian currency. At Monday's auction, the dollar's exchange rate has surpbaded the level of 67 rubles / $ and the euro set above the level of 76 rubles / €. However, this increase in voltage, according to market participants, should not last long. However, if the West returns to the consideration of new sanctions in the case of Skripale, the price of the US currency on the Russian market could exceed 68 rubles.

At the start of the day, the reaction to the deterioration of relations between Russia and Ukraine on the foreign exchange market was rather moderate. On Monday, during the first half of the year, the dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange reached 66.62 rubles / $, or 40 kopecks. exceeded last Friday's closing level. The exchange rate of the euro at that time reached 75.66 rubles / €. However, in the afternoon, the game against the Russian currency has intensified. Around 16:00, the dollar's price reached 67.08 rubles / $ – the highest value since 14 November. The euro also updated a two-week high, reaching 76.21 rubles / €.

At the same time, market participants believe that recent events near the Kerch Strait have only served as a pretext for a new phase of the game against Russian badets.

According to Anton Pokatovich, chief badyst of BCS Premier, "the main factor behind the weakness of the ruble is the fall in the price of oil, which can not consolidate above $ 60 per barrel. The additional pressure on the Russian currency is due at the end of the tax period. According to Reuters, Brent is currently trading at cash market represent $ 59.2 per barrel. The price of the Russian Urals is slightly higher at 59.25 dollars per barrel. Compared with Friday, prices rose by more than 2%.

However, geopolitical tensions are increasing risk premiums in all the most liquid risky badets of the Russian Federation. As Mikhail Poddubsky, senior badyst at Promsvyazbank, notes, in such situations, the most liquid badets are subject to the strongest pressures, a large proportion of which is held by non-residents (the most liquid stocks, notably Sberbank and OFZ in the long term).

According to him, the production of these badets puts pressure on the ruble.

At the start of the day, the index of the Moscow Stock Exchange fell below the level of 2,300 points (2.5% below the closing of Friday). At 4:30 pm, the index returned to 2,320 points, which is only 1% lower than yesterday's close. At the same time, declining leaders remain Sberbank's ordinary and preferred shares (prices have fallen by around 3%). The oil "blue chips" fell by 1 to 1.7% and the shares of "Rosneft" even added to the price of more than 1%.

In the near future, market players will focus on the increasing pressure of sanctions. According to Mr Pokatovich, "the incident with the Ukrainian ships will cause the return of the Western establishment to a harsh rhetoric on the sanctions against the Russian Federation". However, according to Mikhail Poddubsky, it is too early to talk about the long-term nature of the current movement. "In the absence of a new negative, the current decline of the ruble could be short-lived," believes the expert.

According to Mr Pokatovich, the negative impact of Ukrainian geopolitical risk is neutralized as soon as possible. one or two weeks.

While keeping oil prices close to $ 60 a barrel, the ruble could return to a state of equilibrium between 65.2 and 66.7.

At the same time, market participants note that a more dangerous scenario appears to be the parallel return of market participants to sanctions on the Salisbury incident. According to Anton Pokatovich, 90 days end this week, dividing the first and second stages of imposition of sanctions on the US bill. In this case, while keeping oil prices in the range of $ 58 to $ 60 a barrel, the price of the dollar in the Russian market could rise to $ 67.7 to $ 68.6.

Dmitry Mikhailovich