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The rating agency Moody's recalls the risks to our economy, which it still draws a portrait rather flattering.
"The growth model of Belgium is confronted in the medium term to challenges in order to maintain its competitiveness and increase the activity rate of the population "says Olivier Chemla, Senior VP Analyst at Moody's, which publishes a "Government of Belgium – Aa3 Stable, Annual Credit Analysis" study.
The rating agency evokes several risks for our country. First, we are exposed to a potential external demand due to the high degree of openness of its economy. We are also very exposed to Brexit given our trade links with the United Kingdom: 7.3% of goods exports go across the Channel, which represents 4.5% of GDP, one of the highest ratios of EU countries. On the other hand, our country presents a low exposure to the risk of exceptional event due to low banking and political risks.
Belgium is noted Aa3 with stable perspective by Moody's, who talks about a "a prosperous and diversified economy supported by its central geographic location and a strong institutional framework, as well as the government's caution in conducting fiscal policy ". Buta rating could move upwards if, for example, a faster than expected reduction in public debt took place (thanks to a more frank economic recovery or more resolute action on deficits). Similarly, an improvement in the labor market, with higher activity and employment rates, and a tax reform, would also have a positive impact.
On the other hand, the rating could be negatively impacted if the The trajectory of the public debt had to deviate significantly from the forecasts Moody's (a gradual debt relief after a peak in 2014). Moodys also points out that "lasting deterioration of the country's fiscal position, or even a medium-term incapacity to reduce its indebtedness, would put stress on the rating, especially if the country's structural weaknesses, particularly its low activity and limited room for maneuver available from a budgetary point of view.
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