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It’s Championship Weekend in the NFL, which is exciting news as it means we’ll know who plays the Super Bowl. It’s also a little sad because it means Sunday will be the last time we have multiple NFL games until next season.
It also means that we have fewer opportunities to make money betting on games, so let’s not waste them. We couldn’t ask for better matches than the ones we got. In the AFC we have the reigning champions taking on one of the hottest teams in the league. The NFC is an all-time battle of two great quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Can’t wait to watch it and try to make some money for all of us!
The Packers only looked bad once this season. Sure, they lost three games, but it was only the 38-10 road loss to that same Tampa team that the Packers got embarrassed in. They took a quick 10-0 lead after the first quarter and then death and destruction began. Aaron Rodgers threw up a pick-six, and it started a 38-point run for Tampa. Rodgers pitched another pick in the game, was sacked four times, and suffered countless other pressures, as the Tampa defense put in what was arguably their best performance of the season.
And that’s what makes me lean towards the Packers in the rematch. I don’t think Tampa can play that well again, and I don’t think Rodgers can play that bad. Also, as I mentioned, Green Bay took a 10-0 lead in this game before it all fell apart. Now, with the rematch taking place at Lambeau at the end of January, the Packers have the advantage. Yes, Tom Brady spent a whole career playing in cold weather with the Patriots, but he played for a team full of players who played in cold weather. He played in teams built for these conditions. I don’t think Tampa is made for that.
This does not mean that they will not be successful. I think the Bucs will be able to throw the ball against the Green Bay defense. Keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field is the best thing the Bucs can do in their defense, and that will likely be the game plan. This should limit the score for both teams. So while I think the Packers are the better team and win this game more often than not, the smartest game is to take the Under. I don’t see a shootout happening.
Projected score: Packers 27, Bucs 23
Best bet: under 51.5 (-110)
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Last Chances:
Kansas City Chiefs -3
I made this choice with the idea that Patrick Mahomes will play, and he has since announced that he had cleared the concussion protocol and will indeed play. And if Mahomes plays, I support Mahomes at home.
Buffalo’s defense has improved over the season and ranks 12th in the NFL in DVOA against the pass. Still, I can’t help but notice that Buffalo’s improvement in defense coincided with a series of games against San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England, Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore. Of those seven opponents, none rank in the top half of the NFL by passing DVOA on offense. Indianapolis, 16th, is the highest-ranked passing offense of the seven. Kansas City is second, behind Green Bay.
Slowing down transient attacks like these is much easier to do than slowing down Kansas City’s. There’s been a lot of talk about Kansas City’s struggles with the spread lately, and they’re real, but I’m not concerned about them at all. Part of the reason is that the Chiefs are the defending champions and as a result they are often overrated in the market. I think Mahomes’ injury speculation is offering them a better price than what we could have seen without any health issues. Additionally, Kansas City was on track to cover up against the Browns last week before Mahomes was injured. They were leading 19-10 in Cleveland territory when he fell and then had to settle for a basket. If Mahomes never gets hurt, I think the Chiefs win the game with relative comfort. And while I don’t see them blowing over Buffalo on Sunday, I don’t see them in danger either.
Projected score: Chiefs 31, Bills 23
Best bet: Chiefs -3 (-115)
|
Last week |
2-1 |
0.95 |
|
Season |
29-24-4 |
2.7 |
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