Bet this Bears vs. Packers Prop on Sunday Night Football

To choose	Bet now
Aaron Rodgers under 296.5 Pass Yards (-125)	BetMGM

Think of this as a bet against the Bear’ offense – not Rodgers.

The script of the game has a huge impact on a quarterback’s passing yards. When a team is lagging behind, they usually throw at a higher rate (favoring the most). But when they’re in the lead, they usually run at a higher pace (favoring pennies). Well, I expect the Packers to quickly take the lead against the Bears and hold onto it throughout their showdown on Sunday night.

The Bears offense is unlikely to be able to score enough points for Rodgers to keep his foot on the accelerator for all four quarters, which is why I’m throwing Rodgers for just 282.5 passing yards.

I would bet that under 286.5, but here are the projected odds that it will go above or below different lines based on my prop simulations of 10,000 players:

Skip Yds	More than	Under
288.5	46.3%	53.7%
289.5	45.7%	54.3%
290.5	45.1%	54.9%
291.5	44.5%	55.5%
292.5	43.9%	56.1%
293.5	43.3%	56.7%
294.5	42.7%	57.3%
295.5	42.1%	57.9%
296.5	41.5%	58.5%

That said, the market offers the perfect opportunity to be in the middle as FanDuel offers the Rodgers propeller at 270.5 meters.

Here are my projected chances that he will cross those lower lines, for those who are more interested:

Skip Yds	More than	Under
270.5	57.3%	42.7%
271.5	56.7%	43.3%
272.5	56.1%	43.9%
273.5	55.5%	44.5%

Still, I prefer the underside here because of the projected game script.

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