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Here’s the good news for those who want to see an expanded college football playoff – it should happen. It’s going to happen on a December timeline set in the same way this article was only sent out at the last possible moment on Friday afternoon – give someone a deadline and he or she will insist until last possible moment.
“I’m not wasting time on whether we’re going to grow,” said one person engaged in the process, echoing many of the people engaged in the process that Yahoo Sports spoke to this week.
There’s a chance things will work out over the next few weeks, and the sports overlords are channeling their coastal / BYU interior and the 12-team college football playoffs are set for the 2023 season. There’s a chance that this summer of process stubbornness pushes things back until the 2024 season. But usually, when there’s money to be made, there’s a lot of motivation to get things done.
What will persist in recent weeks is confusion among those who have entered the path of college football playoff expansion. These include the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC commissioners who make up the so-called Alliance. Right now, when it comes to college football playoffs, it looks like they’ve tied their arms to step on each other’s toes.
The stronger the objections of these three Commissioners in the room, the less meaning they have. And as this and the following seasons unfold, they’re going to be overwhelmed by the common sense of their athletic directors, coaches, and fan bases. Why fight against progress?
The Alliance that started out as an understandable objection to SEC / ESPN domination is starting to undermine its own interests. And that leaves a lot of his brothers – and even his own athletic directors – wondering what exactly are Jim Phillips of the ACC, Kevin Warren of the Big Ten, and George Kliavkoff of the Pac-12 doing.
It’s understandable that they want to discuss issues like player safety, timing, and, for the Pac-12 and the Big Ten, posture for the Rose Bowl. But these three leagues are on the verge of jeopardizing the relevance and prosperity of their conferences without getting anything substantial in return.
Nothing illustrates this dynamic better than this season.
As we move into Week 6 of this college football season, the Big Ten are in a convincing position of strength with five teams ranked in the top 12. That’s three more than the SEC and would give it a legitimate shot at the top. ‘Bring four teams into a playoff if there were 12 teams this year. This is exactly why a college football playoff would be a boon to the Big Ten, as models have shown that the league would have had the most participants of any league during the CFP era.
For ACC and Pac-12, they’re both scrambling to find relevant oxygen. The Oregon No.8 is the Pac-12’s only shot in the four-team playoffs this year, and it’s not sure how much the remaining championship games will help him. (Sorry, Arizona State.) The CCA has virtually no luck, with No. 19 Wake Forest their highest-ranked team. As all three of these leagues pressurize the 12-team playoff issues, they press against their own relevance and financial futures.
Kliavkoff can still be a novice in the room, learning the nuances of bowls and contracts, and sometimes fumbling for points. But at least it looks like he’s strategically trying to position himself for the Rose Bowl – which is the eternal obstacle to a sport’s progress. The problem this time around is that the Rose Bowl contract, which is currently separate from the college football playoff contract, will have to be incorporated into the larger contract. Merging these may require a sweetener for the Pac-12 and the Big Ten, and the idea of the Rose Bowl dropping its preferred date and time remains an issue that needs to be ironed out. (And there are also ripples for the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl and their contracts.)
Warren is already having her first big strike as commissioner fumbling with the cancellation of the Big Ten season in 2020 before scrambling to bring her back. That’s one more loss than any key strategic victory he can claim about a year and a half into his tenure. He’ll ultimately be judged by the size and creativity of the Big Ten’s next televised contract (and what season to jack up the price), but failing to help bring home the 12-team playoffs would play against him – both among league constituents and fan bases – for years to come.
Phillips has few strategic cards to play due to the ACC’s position – for example, no Rose Bowl – but perhaps has the most to gain with a 12-team expansion. The ACC must evolve from Clemson’s one-man band, and the ACC contract that Phillips inherited amounts to a slow march to financial futility that ends in 2036. Already handcuffed by the sins of its predecessors, the CFP expanded is one of the few ways in the next 15 years, ACC can increase revenue and increase its relevance.
After Phillips failed to pull Texas to the ACC and the Pac-12 unsuccessfully tried to do so ten years ago, these leagues will eventually have to stop bragging about a move they both would have performed with pleasure in exactly the same way.
Being a university trustee is extremely complicated and extremely simple at the same time. It’s a job that those who have done it say it takes about two years to adapt. And these three new commissioners are still groping. The simple part is you really need a solid TV deal, pray that your big brands are good, and everything else will take care of itself. The complicated part is about school presidents, a group that is a Star Wars bar filled with different personalities and agendas.
Another key part of being a commissioner is not to oppose massive decisions that will jeopardize the future of your conference and leave you vulnerable to alienation from your fan base. And if the Alliance commissioners go all out against opponents of the playoffs, their terms will tend towards those of Larry Scott and Dan Beebe.
Just imagine Kliavkoff in 2023, if there isn’t an extended playoffs, when the Pac-12 is ruled out again after Oregon and USC finished No.6 and No.11. He’d be a eternal object of mockery of the Pac-12, undermining its league. future for a sunset and a parade. Imagine Warren’s reaction to Columbus or Ann Arbor in the same scenario. Imagine a CCA team climbing to relevance and finishing in the top 12, only for Phillips’ shortsighted leadership to cut that school’s opportunity.
The Alliance has portrayed ESPN somewhat as the bully and stood on the table for several media partners to buy into the next iteration of the playoffs. But it is understood that ESPN will likely play the game with the arrival of a second partner as they don’t want to lose everything when the current contract ends after the 2025 regular season. (Much like CBS did by groping SEC by not playing short-term ball and getting kicked out.)
The College Football Playoff brought in two consultants to guide it through the process. The first projections for the extended 11-game format are intriguing.
“I think, frankly, when we start looking at the numbers, the numbers are astronomical,” said one person involved in the process. “I think the presidents think we need to have an auction [for media rights]. I think it would be in our best interests to have at least two, three [or more] different groups are bidding on it.
The momentum for an eight-team playoff is dead, as The Associated Press’s Ralph Russo reported this week. The momentum for a 12-team event arrives, as soon as the team of new commissioners stops treading on each other and begins to use common sense.
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