Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith's victory in the second round of senatorial elections in Mississippi was tighter than usual in the state of GOP-dominated Deep South. But she was still not really threatened by Democrat Mike Espy in Tuesday's contest, which highlighted the long history of state racial politics.

Some takeaways like Hyde-Smith, who was originally named to succeed former Senator Thad Cochran, are returning to Washington as the first woman elected to represent Mississippi at Capitol Hill:

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RACIAL POLICY IS STILL DOMINANT

In the end, Hyde-Smith beat Espy 54% to 46%, which is much tighter than expected, according to a red prediction in which President Donald Trump would have gained 17 points in 2016. This contest was the last reminder of this race. remains an important factor in the polarized partisan politics of the region.

Before the end of the match, a video showing Hyde-Smith praising a supporter saying, "When he invited me to a public hanging, I would be in the first row." For many black voters, the commentary recalls the dark past of the lynchings of the state at the time of Jim Crow. They were galvanized by his remarks and perceived their vote as a rejection of racism. Many whites rejected accusations that Hyde-Smith's remarks were racist.

His statement was widely regarded as a dog whistle, similar to comments made in Florida by Ron DeSantis, Republican governor candidate at the time, who advised voters not to "steal" the loonie. election by voting for Andrew Gillum, who had lost his candidacy to become the first state. black governor. He also echoed comments by President Donald Trump, who described Gillace as incompetent and undemocratic candidate for the position of Georgian Democratic Governor, Stacey Abrams.

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TURNOUT STRONG BLACK NOT ENOUGH

Black voters spoke out in favor of Espy, but that was not enough, given the general makeup of the Mississippi electorate and the overwhelming loyalty of white voters towards Republicans, even among whites. suburbs that tended to turn to Democrats midway through 2018.

Espy's biggest challenge was simply that the Mississippi did not have a comparable metropolitan area in Atlanta, Nashville (Tennessee) or Charlotte (North Carolina) – growing agglomerations where white voters are much more likely to support democrats than their counterparts in small towns.

Yet even in the Mississippi counties that fit the suburban model – better educated, more affluent – voters remained stuck with Hyde-Smith. His 71% in Rankin counties and 54% in Madison County (both outside Jackson's Democratic stronghold) placed it only a few percentage points less than the mark. of Trump for 2016 in these counties.

This is in contrast to the other recent elections at Deep South.

In Georgia, Abrams lost the governor's race by only 1.4 percentage points, largely because she won large suburban counties like Cobb and Gwinnett in the Atlanta subway. In the 2017 senate special elections in Alabama, Democratic Senator Doug Jones capitalized on Republican Roy Moore's weaknesses, not by winning large suburban counties, but by far surpbading the usual democrat brands.

The nearly 409,000 votes of Espy accounted for 84% of Hillary Clinton's total votes against Trump in 2016. In comparison, Jones managed 92% of the presidential runoff during his Alabama victory. In Georgia, Abrams even surpbaded the Clinton mark in 2016. If Espy had managed Tuesday, he would have won: Clinton would have obtained 485 131 votes. Unofficial returns show Hyde-Smith at 479,365.

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SOME AFRICA-AMERICAN GAINS

Despite the democrat loss of the dominant race of the state, civil rights groups and grbadroots organizers point to the gains obtained from the bottom of ballots, especially in judicial competitions. The high turnout of black voters elected two black women to the Hinds County Circuit Court, offering for the first time a black bench to the county, including three black women.

The victories reflect wins in Texas, where 19 black women were elected judges earlier this month, and Alabama, where a record number of nine black female judges were elected in last year's special election. .

Candidates who voted in the lowest ballots also benefited from the high black participation this mid-term cycle in Georgia, where Lucy McBath, a black woman, the Republican Republic's outgoing president, Karen Handel, once held a seat held by former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, and Florida. where voters supported the restoration of voting rights to tens of thousands of old felons.

By focusing more on criminal justice and voting rights, these victories could have a greater impact on the daily lives of voters.

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DECLINATION

Mississippi is not used to having back senators. From 1947 to 2007, the state sent only four senators to Washington. Not so long ago, the Mississippi Senate consisted of Cochran as Chair of the Credit Committee and Trent Lott as Majority Leader, both specializing in accelerated management of federal funds to their state of origin.

The oldest senator is Roger Wicker, in office since December 31, 2007, but will find himself behind more than a dozen Republican colleagues on the seniority list when Congress convenes in January. Hyde-Smith will not be on the line – her months as an appointed senator place her in front of the GOP freshmen who have just been elected in November – but she's close.

Of course, Washington is different from Cochran's: budgets are no longer central to all negotiations. But for a small economically disadvantaged state that has long depended on federal influence, the 116th Congress will be a new territory.

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NO PERFECT FORMULA FOR SOUTH DEMOCRATS

Democrats have made decisive progress in recent elections in the South, but there is no perfect formula for winning all states.

Espy, a former Cabinet member led by President Bill Clinton, has come forward as a moderate with experience gained on the other side of the aisle. Abrams of Georgia and Gillum of Florida presented themselves as unscrupulous liberals and have almost won victories in Governor's races that would have been historic. The Democrats of Alabama and South Carolina have appointed white men – relatively young, relatively moderate – to the governorship.

All lost: Abrams and Gillum had narrow margins; Espy ran hard but was not close; Alabama and South Carolina were the usual Republican defeats.

The lesson: Candidates are important, but so is the electorate. The three closest races claimed that Democrats should not give up the South and that eligibility tests should not be limited to white men.

The next test will take place in Georgia, where Secretary of State John Barrow, a 63-year-old moderate congressman, will face the Secretary of State on December 4, against a little-known Republican lawmaker. After that, attention is focused on Louisiana, where Democratic governor John Bel Edwards will attempt to be re-elected in 2019 four years after upsetting his Republican rival, Sen. David Vitter.

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