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Researchers at the Johns Hopkins Health Center (USA) have developed a plausible scenario of a pandemic caused by an influenza virus that, with its virulence and pathogenicity, resembles the initiator of SARS pneumonia APS
Two years after the beginning of the epidemic, 150 million people will become victims of the disease, and if the options to limit the infection and develop a vaccine are inadequate, the death toll will reach 1 billion of people, writes Science Alert
. In the beginning, the epidemic will spread to Germany and Venezuela. In the first week of the illness, the usual symptoms of the flu, including cough and fever, appear, but complications such as encephalitis and coma occur
The Clade X simulation aims to evaluate the The effectiveness of policy and health safety experts. in the event of a real pandemic. It turned out that 20 million months after the beginning of the epidemic, 150 million people died in the world and only 15-20 million in the United States. In the absence of vaccine, mortality continues to grow, resulting in the death of up to 10% of the total population of the Earth.
Scientists say the most alarming is that Clade X is not more infectious and lethal than SARS – respiratory syndrome or SARS. The SARS coronavirus infected more than eight thousand people between 2002 and 2003 and killed 10% of those infected.
Humanity is saved because the virus is not particularly infected until the patient has severe symptoms. As a result, outbreaks of infection mainly broke out in health facilities, which prevented the spread of the virus in other public places. In the end, viral mutations led to the emergence of less infectious strains of SARS
.However, Clade X, which, like the regular flu, is infected before the onset of symptoms can occur. spread with the same frequency as SARS. , not limited to hospitals. According to the idea of the simulation developers, the infectious agent also possessed the West Nile virus genes and was developed by a group of bioterrorists
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