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Predictions that the nation will fall below 7 million by the end of next year or early next year, recently made by Sergei Tsvetkov, president of the INS, are not the worst demographic news of the year. On Friday, the National Institute of Statistics published its
updated
forecast for
demographic development
of the country
which shows that in 2080 the Bulgarian population will be 4 872 317
Up to now, the forecasts were until 2070 and, according to her, the Bulgarian population would have dropped to 5.1 million people
Two other five-year planes were added to the update, and by 2075, the population has dropped to 4.9 million people and 4.8 million in 2080. It's been almost 100 years in 1970 for the first time in history if the population of the country has reached 8 million. l & # 39; man.
fall below 6 million. people should occur between 2040 and 2045 [19659002] All these figures are called. realistic scenario in which the demographic nation will develop. There are two other scenarios: pessimistic and optimistic. But even with the melting of the optimistic nation, things
will be slower
slower in
According to this option, the population will fall below 6 million between 2050 and 2055, and 2080 us will always be more than 5 million people – 5 205 354.
The pessimist at the end of the forecast period will be only 4,692,336.
The other change in the update affects what percentage of the population in time will live in the capital. According to current forecasts, by 2040, a quarter of the population will live in Sofia. The new says that congestion in the capital will be a little smoother in time and this will happen after 2055. But anyway in 2080 in Sofia, there will be 1,419,473 Bulgarians and this will represent nearly 30% of population.
The demographic survey by region ( see chart ) shows that the population will be lower than the current population in 2080. Somewhere the reduction is 30 to 50%, but elsewhere
decreases again
plus
The only exception is the capital. There are also areas such as Sliven, which are barely affected by depopulation. According to forecasts, 186,359 people will live in the area in 2020, while in 2080 the local population will be 165,671. Ie. for a period of about 60 years, it will decrease by only about twenty thousand people. While in the Vidin region for the same period the population melts from about two thirds – from 82 thousand people now to 28 thousand in 2080.
What will be the ethnic image in Bulgaria during this period and what will be the mother tongue of the living in the country can not be predicted, says the INS. This is because the population forecasts are made, with the latest population census data updated each year with the ESGRAON database, and that it does not collect such data, and one can not see what infant and total mortality and birth rates by ethnic groups. Data on ethnicity are collected on a voluntary basis only during the official census, and the last in 2011
Meanwhile, Monday, INS will deliver
the beginning of
preparation
for the next census, which will take place in 2021. During these two and a half years, a special law should be adopted only for this census, the State to provide a budget, etc.
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