California voters would back Newsom against recall campaign, new poll finds

OAKLAND – Gov. Gavin Newsom is well positioned to defeat a likely recall vote, according to a new poll of California voters.

A double-digit majority of likely voters said they would vote to keep Newsom, with 56% of them saying they would keep it compared to 40% seeking to dump the Democratic governor, a poll by California’s Public Policy Institute found published Tuesday evening.

The favorable poll bolsters Newsom’s argument that a recall fueled by pandemic fatigue will fall flat in Democrat-populated California. While the effort to oust him has yet to officially qualify for the ballot, it is extremely likely to have passed before voters in the fall. Newsom has launched a campaign in his defense and has started enlisting leading national Democrats, including Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and voting rights lawyer Stacey Abrams.

Overall, Newsom has an approval rating of 53%, down from its peak of 65% in May 2020. That includes 77% approval among Democrats and a slight advantage among voters with no preference. party, a growing constituency that represents a quarter of voters. and endorses Newsom 49 percent to 46 percent.

If Newsom can maintain his position in the polls, that makes it less likely that another Democrat who feels vulnerable will break ranks and choose to run as a replacement, which in turn could reduce Newsom’s support and make more probable his recall. PPIC chairman and chief executive Mark Baldassare said Newsom had to preserve Democrat support, as former Gov. Gray Davis failed to do en route to voters recalling him in 2003.

“The key is the governor’s ability to continue to maintain his base,” Baldassare said. “That’s what got him elected in 2018, and that’s what will be the key to his survival in 2021.”

Resistance to recall spanned several demographics. An overwhelming 64-point majority of Democrats said they would vote to protect Newsom, reflecting the party’s hegemony in California, as did an 11-point majority from the independent electoral bloc which includes a quarter of the California electorate. Newsom enjoyed plurality support in all parts of the state except the more conservative Central Valley, with dominant margins in the populous areas of the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

The poll also found that Latinos and people with children in their households are in favor of keeping Newsom by a 20-point margin. Parental support could be essential as Newsom goes through deep frustration with prolonged school closures; voters strongly favored a recently enacted law that offers billions of dollars in funding for schools that are re-welcoming students.

Despite voter support for maintaining Newsom, a clear majority supports the recall process and believes the challenge to Newsom is “appropriate”. It could tarnish Newsom and Democratic allies’ efforts to portray the recall as a cynical abuse of power. California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks has already faced a backlash for calling the effort a “coup” comparable to the siege of the US Capitol.

An improvement in the coronavirus situation likely strengthens Newsom’s position. The majority of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind America and were less concerned about the hospitalization, although a majority continue to criticize the distribution of the vaccines. And while most voters said California is in a recession, 60% said they didn’t worry about rent or mortgage payments.

Newsom and its allies have sought to undermine the recall by highlighting California’s progress in the fight against the coronavirus and touting a state relief program that funnels money to struggling individuals and businesses. In a promising sign for Newsom, 70% of voters said they supported the aid.