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As coronavirus cases reach unprecedented levels in California, state and local authorities are quickly adding new restrictions in hopes of slowing the rate of infection.
The new lockdown measures – which include a limited late-night curfew across most of California and the closure of open-air restaurants in Los Angeles County – have been met with some skepticism by weary audiences. months of limits on their movements.
How effective will California’s new limited stay-at-home order be in curbing the pandemic? The rule prohibits gatherings between people from different households between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. and prohibits activities outside the home with members of other households, except for essential errands or essential work, in California counties in the most restrictive reopening level.
The ordinance, which went into effect on Saturday, requires non-essential businesses to shut down or limit their operations late at night. On Sunday, LA County took a big step forward, announcing that starting Wednesday night, outdoor dining will be on hold for at least three weeks.
There is no doubt that new restrictions will hurt already struggling businesses and bring more misery to people who already feel isolated by the pandemic. But there is also evidence that the moves make sense as California enters a dangerous phase of the pandemic, with infections raging and the holidays approaching.
Some experts and officials say they have good reason to believe that shutting down public places where people congregate – nearby and without masks because they eat and drink – may start to reduce the growth of coronavirus cases.
It’s no surprise, like Dr. Erica Pan, Acting Public Health Officer, that late-night activities are often linked to social gatherings where there is “reduced inhibition and a reduced likelihood” of wearing. masks and stay away from friends and family.
“It’s because bad behavior happens at night, at least if I remember college correctly,” Dr. George Rutherford, epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco, said during a campus town hall meeting last week.
In Europe, “it is an observed phenomenon that curfews are associated with turnovers in these rates” of high growth in coronavirus cases, Rutherford said.
For example, France – which observed a quadrupling of daily coronavirus cases during the month of October – decided to put in place even stronger measures to deal with its second wave: imposing a wider curfew , from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m., in large cities; order the closure of non-essential businesses such as retail stores, restaurants and bars; and make masks mandatory for anyone aged 6 and over, Rutherford said.
In recent weeks, daily new cases have halved from the peak. Other similar measures elsewhere in Europe also appear to be successful, Rutherford said.
“This is good news,” he said, “and it suggests again that this type of measure is having success quite quickly, as in a few weeks.
Actions that are still allowed at night are activities that only involve people in their own household, such as perhaps an evening walk with a spouse, walking the dog, and performing essential activities like buying food from the home. ‘grocery store or pick up. takeaway meals in a restaurant.
The state’s actions come amid a spiraling COVID-19 pandemic, spreading at a breathtaking rate not seen in California since the start of this pandemic. The virus is spreading faster than ever in California, and authorities are already warning of the risk of running out of hospital beds within weeks.
This sets California up for a winter season of heartbreak, with the potential for deaths starting to skyrocket during the Christmas holiday season.
California has now recorded six straight days with at least 10,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases per day, a stretch unlike any in the pandemic.
As of Sunday evening, an average of nearly 11,500 cases of coronavirus were reported daily over the previous seven days, triple the rate from about a month ago. The average number of reported deaths has increased by around 75% over the past 10 days, from an average of 38 publicly disclosed deaths per day in the previous week to an average of 66 deaths per day during the period. seven days that ended on Sunday.
More than 1.1 million Californians have been infected with the coronavirus and more than 18,700 have died. Nationally, the average number of weekly deaths is at its highest level since May, as infections rise in nearly every state.
California’s new limited stay-at-home control is much smoother than the imposed European version, and is less economically disruptive than a full-fledged stay-at-home control in effect all day and night, which in the spring forced the closure of many businesses, including shopping malls, barber shops, and hair and nail salons, which are not required to close under this ordinance.
It’s a more targeted approach, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Secretary of Health and Human Services. It aims to prevent the spread of incidents between friends at night that can set off a chain reaction – possibly infecting colleagues the next day, who bring the virus back to their families, some of whom may be working with very vulnerable people, such as residents. . of a care facility for the elderly.
“This will help us stop the outbreak more quickly and avoid more severe actions,” Ghaly said.
“A lot of times when people gather outside after 10 am,” said Barbara Ferrer, LA County Director of Public Health, “it’s because they’re in a situation where they’re socializing with people. others, probably not with people in their household. I would ask people: use your common sense. It makes sense to limit the activities where we are with other people.
It’s possible that people get around the spirit of order by swapping a late-night dinner in an open-air restaurant for dinner in someone’s private indoor residence.
But it is also possible that the decision to close outdoor restaurants late at night in most states could have the effect of shortening the length of dinners, which means fewer hours during which the virus can be transmitted.
The relatively quick reopening of restaurants and bars in May and June in Southern California is a likely reason for the summer surge that culminated in the state’s deadliest season to date in the pandemic. The risk of transmitting the disease increases the more time you spend with an infectious person. Longer social events are more like mass media incidents. Shortening these events could help reduce the number of cases and prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed.
“A curfew will help keep more people from [from gathering] in the late hours of the night, where high-risk activity may occur, ”said Dr. Grant Colfax, director of public health in San Francisco.
Yet the curfew has sparked outrage in some neighborhoods. A few hundred protesters gathered at Huntington Beach Pier on Saturday night, in defiance of the state’s coronavirus curfew, which went into effect at 10 p.m. “I think there are too many restrictions as is,” said one protester. Republican lawmakers have also criticized the rules as unnecessary.
In Los Angeles, restaurateurs fear they won’t survive the last stop at outdoor dining. Still, polls have shown Californians generally support COVID restrictions.
The coronavirus can infect others by coughing, talking, and even breathing, and people can be highly contagious even when they are feeling healthy.
Essential workers who are exempt from the limited stay-at-home order include workers in grocery stores, pharmacies and other retail establishments that sell food; workers in take-out and fast food operations; Health workers; employees of the transport industry; journalists; construction workers and technicians such as plumbers, electricians and exterminators; workers in hardware and construction stores, consumer electronics, and technology and appliance retail; workers supporting e-commerce through distribution, warehouse and call centers; workers managing hotels; and workers in the entertainment industries, as long as they follow public health guidelines regarding physical distancing.
The order would also require shortened hours of operation for non-essential retail stores that might otherwise have employees on hand to take inventory for crowds on Black Friday, as well as limit the crowds of potential buyers who congregate. traditionally late at night and before dawn for some of the busiest shopping days of the year.
There are public health risks if crowds of Black Friday shoppers form, as they did in years past, before the post-Thanksgiving sales.
Ghaly says the ordinance says non-essential businesses must close their operations before 10 p.m. and not resume until 5 a.m. He acknowledged that the success of the order depends in large part on the voluntary membership of Californians. However, authorities will be able to apply the rule as a state health ordinance if they choose to do so.
“It’s about coming together,” Ghaly said. “It’s about whether we decide to do certain things… so that we can control the situation.”
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