GAO report on Commercial Crew: "The hell they're going to launch before 2019"

NASA hopes that its commercial crew program will allow the agency to send astronauts to the International Space Station and release the agency of his dependence on Russia. Photo Credit: Nathan Koga / SpaceFlight Insider

SpaceX President Gwynn Shotwell's predictions that the company's Crew Dragon probe would fly with astronauts by 2018, appear to be inaccurate. Similarly, Boeing's entry into NASA's Commercial Crew program is not expected to achieve key certification goals this year, according to a government report.

This evaluation is based on a recent report submitted on July 11, 2018 by . ] Government Accountability Office . He notes that SpaceX's average certification date is now estimated to be January 2020, with Boeing expecting to achieve its certification goal by December 2019.

SpaceX has made ambitious statements regarding the efforts of 39, space exploration of the crew. Representatives of the company said they planned to send tourists around the moon this year (2018) as noted a report by Kenneth Chang appeared in the New York Times .

An Atlas V 422 rocket propels Boeing's CST-100 Starliner into the sky in this artist's representation. Photo Credit: Nathan Koga / SpaceFlight Insider

Since SpaceX will not be able to send crews into low Earth orbit before 2020, the Californian company Hawthorne will not send tourists around the Moon during this period.

At a press conference held at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in February 2017, Shotwell said, "I am confident we will fly in 2018. The answer to this morning's report was, heck we will not be "In April 2018, the risk badysis of the schedule of the program revealed that there was zero percent chance that one or the other of the subcontractors "

GAO report states that these problems suggest consistent behavior among the two contractors:

" Our badysis also shows that contractors often delay their schedules. The two contractors have repeatedly stated that their schedules are aggressive and set ambitious dates – rather than realistic – to delay them frequently. "

Although SpaceX's proclamations were bold, Boeing, the other participant in the summer more moderate.

With a premature abandonment that is expected to take place later this year, Boeing discovered that during 39; a potential abandonment scenario, the spacecraft could plummet. NASA also noted that a possible interaction between Starliner's heat shield and its parachute system could lead to problems requiring a redesign that could result in a delay of at least six additional months.

Roger Krone, president of Boeing Network and Space Systems said on SpaceFlight Now in 2010 that Starliner could be operational in 2015 if the funding required was provided

Boeing won a contract worth an estimated $ 4.2 billion to produce and certify the 2017 CST-100 Starliner spacecraft, with SpaceX re $ 2.6 billion to build and certify their Dragon Crew spacecraft.

Old Issues Return

On September 16, 2016, a loop lining in one of the carbon pressure tanks in the top floor of a SpaceX Falcon 9 allowed the supercooled liquid oxygen to accumulate. This was then ignited because of friction and exploded. The ensuing conflagration resulted in the loss of the Falcon 9, the $ 185 million Amos-6 satellite, and much of the launch site. The rocket was at the platform being prepared for a static test fire when the accident took place. Unfortunately, this is not the only accident that hit SpaceX with an " overpressure " event that caused the loss of this Falcon 9 as well as the Dragon vessel that was destined for the Space Station with more than 4000

The SpaceX Merlin 1D rocket has achieved an impressive track record in a very short time. The engine was designed from the start to be evaluated by the crew – a critical aspect considering the next big task of the engines. Photo Credit: SpaceX

The nine Merlin 1D engines that use the Falcon 9 rocket also encountered problems that raised concerns about their safety when they were used to send astronauts on their way to the United States. # 39; ISS.

(see video below) that appeared in the turbines of Merlin 1D engines would not be a problem. The GAO report was less optimistic about this. NASA had stated that the problem posed an unacceptable risk to manned spaceflight. The report stated that: … this risk will not be closed until SpaceX has pbaded the qualification tests in accordance with NASA standards without any cracks.

NASA also expressed concern about the power of the rocket with a crew already perched at the top. However, the agency appeared to soften its position on this subject. Amos-6 was also at the top of the Falcon 9 when the explosion occurred. It is not known if this problem continues to pose a problem with regard to how SpaceX plans to launch the crew. SpaceX responded to the questions raised by agreeing to demonstrate the viability of their refueling procedures:

"In order to better understand the propellant loading procedures, the program and SpaceX have agreed to demonstrate the process of loading the propellant site five times. the five events include the non-decoupled flight test and the flight drop test, therefore delays in these events would result in delays in the agreed demonstrations, which could in turn delay the flight test and certification step
. "Out of the CRS-7 anomaly, SpaceX had no problem. Regular supply of the International Space Station takes place through the non-cargo variant of its Dragon spacecraft.The latest Dragon Commercial Refueling Services (CRS-15) has been launched since Space Launch Com plex 40 of the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station June 29, 2018.

Despite the tone of the GAO Report, which could have been favored by the information provided this spring. The A Crew Dragon probe was delivered to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida this week in preparation for its first flight. The vehicle had just completed a thermal and acoustic vacuum test in Ohio at NASA's Plum Brook station

The GAO said other delays in this schedule are "likely". entrepreneurs have made progress, the risks remain. According to the report:

"The NASA certification process addresses the safety of contractor crews' transportation systems through several mechanisms, but there are factors that complicate the process." One of these factors is the loss of crew metrics that has been set up to capture the likelihood of death or permanent disability in an astronaut.Nasa has not identified a consistent approach to how To estimate the loss of the crew.As a result, officials from all over NASA have several ways to evaluate the measure that can give different results. risk tolerance that NASA accepts in the event of crew loss varies depending on the entity reporting the results of its badessment.The federal internal controls stipulate that management should define risk tolerances so that 39; el They are clear and measurable – without a consistent approach to evaluating the measure, the agency as a whole may not capture or clearly document its risk tolerance for crew loss. "

In the 2014 NASA awarded fixed-price contracts to Boeing and SpaceX about $ 6.8 billion.In an article in Business Insider published in 2016, it was estimated The agency at the time paid Russia $ 3.37 billion to send astronauts to the ISS.The seats aboard the Soyuz spacecraft, whose lineage goes back to 1966, would cost more than 19659007] dollars (19659008) by siege

For NASA, the GAO report presumably badumes that Russia has ISS This status has existed since 21 July 2011, when the last mission of the Space Shuttle, STS -135, was performed aboard Atlantis – now at the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex – a popular tourist destination The two other shuttle orbiters worth flying, Discovery ] and Endeavor rest in music located in Virginia and California respectively.

SpaceFlight Insider reached out to representatives with NASA and Boeing regarding the findings of the report. At the publication of this article, we have not received an answer.

Video courtesy of SpaceFlight Insider

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Jason Rhian

Jason Rhian spent several years honing his skills with internships at NASA. , the National Space Society and other organizations. He has provided content for sales outlets such as: Aviation Week and Space Technology, Space.com, The Mars Society and Universe Today.