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BERLIN – Chancellor Angela Merkel is a seemingly invincible figure in German politics. In 13 years, she was the most powerful leader in Europe, a presence synonymous with stability if called by Germans Mutti, or Mother. So it was a familiar sight on Monday to see her live on TV, until she asked the Germans to do something a lot less familiar and to "get ready for the night." ;afternoon".
The Chancellor announced that she would step down as leader of her conservative party in December and not run again in 2021. This means that Merkel could stay on the political scene for months. But few observers think she could hold out until the end of her term, speculating that new elections could be held as early as next year.
The Chancellor's decision makes it clear that neither her country nor herself are immune to the forces that reorganized politics across the continent – the destruction of the political center; the rise of populist forces; the backlash of the migration crisis; and a redrawing of the political fault lines to overcome the left-right historical division for a battle between pro-European liberal values and their nationalist counterpart.
For months, speculation grew on the possible departure of Ms. Merkel from the political scene. The announcement was not a surprise, but it was a shock. This underlined the new fragility of German policy and the great uncertainty for a Europe without Mrs Merkel at the helm.
"Germany has been a cradle of political stability over the past decade, but that seems to be over," said Stefan Koopman, an economist at Rabobank.
Merkel's announcement comes hours after her party has had the worst electoral results since 1966 in the state of Hesse in the West, and two weeks after its conservative allies in Bavaria, a similar blow.
The chancellor had already seen her power go astray for a year, since the inconclusive national elections that had left her tempted to keep the coalition in power, tired and hard to govern, when a party of Far right entered the Parliament for the first time to become the dominant voice of the opposition.
Ms. Merkel herself did not really look like a leader who planned to be in office before three years. Sometimes his very personal address on Monday sounded like a farewell speech.
"I was not born Chancellor and I have never forgotten that," said Merkel. Serving as chancellor was an "honor", she said. "I am very grateful that I have been able to do this for so long."
But, she said, looking almost relieved, "It's time to start a new chapter."
When asked what she would do after leaving office, Ms Merkel smiled serenely: "I think I am very, very good at keeping myself busy."
What is waiting for Germany and Europe after leaving his post is a more delicate issue.
Analysts say Merkel's retirement could usher in a new era, not only for the biggest country in Europe, but for the continent itself.
This could leave Germany more unstable and less able to take the lead in Europe at a time when it is absolutely necessary to show leadership on a large number of topics – the imminent departure of Britain from the Union the controversial budget plans of Italy.
"There could not be a worse time for the stable ship from Germany to go into rough waters," said economist Mr Koopman.
It is difficult to exaggerate the extent of the German influence on European affairs during Merkel's time, particularly in the area of economic policy. Following the financial crisis of 2007-08, austerity policies led by Germany were imposed on debtor countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and especially the Greece.
Merkel has also been the mainstay of European foreign policy in recent years, demanding a hard line on the maintenance of economic sanctions against Russia after the conflict in Ukraine, the other European countries being much less enthusiastic. In the European Union, the liberal version of Merkel's conservatism served as a bulwark against the nationalist push of other conservative leaders of countries such as Hungary and Poland.
And it was Mrs. Merkel who stood up to President Trump, winning the respect of many people in Europe and beyond, who embraced her as a defender of the liberal order.
This reputation reached its zenith in 2015, when Merkel welcomed hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers to Germany. But it was also this decision that ultimately helped divide his party and his country and accelerate the fragmentation of the German political landscape.
Many members of his party blamed Ms Merkel's migration policy for the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany, which became the third party in Parliament and which is represented on Sunday. in the 16 regional parliaments.
But others pointed out that in Sunday's election in Hesse, the Conservatives lost more votes for the pro-refugee Liberal Greens than the Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD.
At a party conference in December, Merkel's conservatives will choose a new leader, an election that will also determine party orientation on controversial issues such as migration and the future of Europe.
"The fundamental question is: what will be the position of Merkel's successor on Europe and on European integration, on the pooling of sovereignty or rather on the reduction and promotion of a program of reaffirmation of national sovereignty, "said Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, a research institute based in Brussels. "The field is wide open."
Whatever the winner of the Conservative leadership contest, one thing is already certain, badysts said. Germany is more and more like its small neighbors who have experienced a similar political divide, including Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.
It's not everyone who thinks it's a bad thing. Some badysts say it will be more about public debate, with the potential to revitalize politics. But for 13 years since Merkel took office, it has made governance – and leadership abroad – more difficult.
Merkel said she did not blame voters for fleeing her center-right party, but baduming full personal responsibility for the losses. After facing two rebellions that nearly brought down her government this year, Merkel admitted that the image of her government was "unacceptable".
"As Chancellor and Leader of Christian Democrats, I am responsible for everything that succeeds, as well as for things that do not succeed," said Merkel.
"My conservative party can elect a new leadership at the party congress in Hamburg, as well as a new basic program, to prepare for the time after me," she said.
Ms Merkel said that she had made the decision to no longer show up after a period of "personal reflection" over the summer and that she had planned to announce it during the summer break. A meeting in camera next week. But after the terrible result of Sunday, she understood that she had to act.
"It was a clbadic Merkel gesture," said Evelyn Roll, journalist and author of a biography of Merkel. "She has not lost her ability to surprise."
Despite the success of its mandate for the elections in Hesse, which saw the unemployment rate fall below the national average and revenues grow under conservative leadership, the Chancellor's party lost more than 11% of support, mainly for the benefit of the left, environmental Greens and AFD.
Social partners Merkel, the Social Democrats, have also lost the majority of voters to the benefit of the Greens, like the electoral migration observed two weeks earlier in the regional elections in Bavaria.
"The fact that voters are leaving the two traditional traditional parties at both ends of the political spectrum suggests that voters are unhappy with their attempts to straddle key political demarcation lines," said Charlotte Galpin, deputy director of the Institute. of German Studies, the University of Birmingham.
Long before becoming Chancellor, Merkel was already planning a dignified exit. "I do not want to be a wreck half dead when I leave politics," she said.
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