"Everything is at stake" on the eve of the first elections of the Trump era

WASHINGTON – The judgment day of American politics is almost here.

On Tuesday, voters will decide the $ 5 billion debate between US President Donald Trump's "no prisoners" policy and the Democratic Party's overcrowded campaign to end the GOP's monopoly in Washington and the Palestinians. State of the country.

It would seem that an often-discussed "blue wave" can help Democrats take control of at least one House of Congress. But two years after elections that proved that the polls and the prognosticators were false, nothing was certain on the eve of the first national elections of the Trump presidency.

"I do not think there's a Democrat in this country who is not worried about 2016," said Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY's List, who has spent more than ever before – close to $ 60 million – support Democratic women in this campaign season.

"Everything counts and everything is at stake," said Schriock.

The 435 seats of the House of the United States must be re-elected. And 35 seats in the Senate are at stake, as are nearly 40 governors and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.

Although he is not on the ballot, Trump himself acknowledged that the mid-term reviews of 2018 represent primarily a referendum on his presidency.

If the Democrats took control of the House, as the two party strategists probably think, they could derail Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years. Perhaps more importantly, they would also obtain the power of summons to investigate the numerous personal and professional mistakes of the president.

Tuesday's elections will also test the strength of a political realignment of the Trump era, defined by the changing divisions among voters according to race, gender and especially the # 39; education.

Trump's Republican coalition is getting older, whiter, more masculine and less likely to have a university degree. Democrats rely more on women, people of color, young people and college graduates.

Political realignment, if one exists, could reshape US policy for a generation.

Just five years ago, the Republican National Committee said that the very survival of the GOP depended on its attractiveness to attract more minorities and women. These voters have increasingly fled the Trump Republican Party, repelled by its chaotic leadership style and xenophobic rhetoric. Blue-collar workers, however, embraced the unconventional president.

Ari Fleischer, one of the authors of the RNC report, acknowledged that Republican leaders had never considered expanding their ranks with white men from the working clbad.

"What it means to be Republican is being rewritten right now," Fleischer said. "Donald Trump has the pen and his writing is not always very good."

A national poll released Sunday by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal details the extent of demographic change.

Democrats led African-American voters (84% to 8%), Latinos (57% to 29%), voters aged 18 to 34 (57% to 34%), women (55) . 37%) and the self-employed (35% to 23%).

Among white women with a university education, Democrats have a 28-point advantage: 61% to 33%.

On the other hand, Republicans led voters aged 50 to 64 (52% to 43%), men (50% to 43%) and whites (50% to 44%). And among white men without a university degree, Republicans were in the lead between 65 and 30%.

Democrats hope to elect a record number of women in Congress. They are also about to make history with the number of LGBT candidates and Muslims going up and down in the polls.

Former President Barack Obama has seized differences between parties during a last battle to motivate the country's voters.

"An election will not eliminate racism, badism or homophobia," Obama said at a Florida appearance. "It will not happen in an election, but it will be a start."

Trump has delivered a very different final argument against immigrants from Latin America seeking asylum at the US border.

Just weeks from the caravan, Trump sent more than 5,000 soldiers to the area. The president also said that the soldiers would use deadly force against the migrants who throw stones, before overturning.

Nevertheless, his xenophobic rhetoric is unprecedented for an American president of the modern era: "A properly used barbed wire can be a magnificent sight," Trump told Montana voters.

The overcrowded environment is expected to result in record participation in some places, but on the eve of the elections, it is unclear which camp will have the largest number of spectators.

The result is clouded by the radically different landscape of the House and the Senate.

Democrats are the most optimistic about the House, a sprawling battlefield that stretches from Alaska to Florida. Most major races, however, take place in the American suburbs, where more educated and better-off voters from both parties have seized Trump's turbulent presidency, despite the strength of the national economy.

Democrats must get two dozen seats to claim a majority in the House.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who personally invested $ 110 million to help the Democrats this year, largely in the House, seized voter education to choose target races, according to the report. help Howard Wolfson.

"In this cycle, there seemed to be a disproportionate negative reaction among highly educated voters towards Trump," he said.

As a result, the Bloomberg team has unlocked money in forgotten suburbs in states like Georgia, the state of Washington, and Oklahoma because the data revealed that voters were more educated.

Democratic Senators face a much tougher challenge in the Senate, where they are almost exclusively involved in defense in rural states where Trump remains popular. The outgoing members of the Democratic Senate must be re-elected, for example, in North Dakota, West Virginia and Montana – the United States averaged 30 percentage points two years ago.

The Democrats must win two seats to claim a majority in the Senate, although most political agents of both parties expect the Republicans to increase their majority.

While Trump is ready to claim victory if his party retains control of the Senate, at least one influential ally fears that the loss of only one House of Congress is disastrous.

"If they take over the House, he will essentially become a lame president and he will not be re-elected," said Amy Kremer, a tea party activist who heads the Women for Trump group.

"They will do everything in their power to remove him," she said.

Indeed, powerful democratic forces are already pushing for the removal of Trump, even if the Democratic leaders are not ready to go that far.

Liberal activist Tom Steyer spent about $ 120 million in this mid-season. Much of this has served to increase the participation of young voters, although he has produced a national advertising campaign calling for the removal of Trump.

Steyer insisted that most Democrats agree.

"We are not a marginal part of the Democratic Party, we are the Democratic Party," he said.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, both parties are expected to have spent more than $ 5 billion by polling day. The flood of campaign funds, a mid-term record, has been overwhelmingly fueled by left-wing energy.

With money put aside, Steyer said worried voters around the world had invested heart and soul in the fight against Trump's party.

"That's what's at stake: my heart and my soul, as well as those of others," he said.