'Brexit' Draft Deal: British Cabinet to Meet

• A key sticking point is the Irish border, a contentious issue for which there is no easy solution as negotiators try to figure out a way to allow people and goods to pbad through the imposition of a hard border.

Predictions and prognostication from the British press

The Daily Mail called it "judgment day," and the Daily Telegraph has "moment of truth." The Times of London, meanwhile, wrote that Prime Minister Theresa May had been "accused of betrayal" over her plans for Brexit.

On Wednesday the British press was dominated by reports of Mrs. May's draft Brexit deal and speculation about what could happen when her senior ministers meet.

But The Sun, one of the loudest advocates of Brexit, predicted that there would be sound – but not too much fury – from hard-line Brexiteers within Mrs. May's cabinet.

UK front pages on #Brexit draft deal #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/285rvtzB4H

–
        Philip Bromwell (@philipbromwell)
Nov. 13, 2018

The tabloid reported that the most senior pro-Brexit ministers would fall into line when the cabinet meets for a long, pivotal meeting.

But it believes that some cabinet resignations from the high-profile cabinet ministers who can support the Brexit are possible – something that would embarrbad Mrs. May, though probably not wreck her leadership.

Those expected to stick by Mrs. May include the influential Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab; Environment Secretary Michael Gove; Transport Secretary Chris Grayling; and the House of Commons leader, Andrea Leadsom. More recent recruits to the Brexit cause – Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary Sajid Javid – are also likely to support the prime minister, The Sun's political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, reported.

"The Sun understands that none of the key players are expected to resign today, with all grudgingly agreeing to go along with it at least for now," reported Mr. Newton, who was less confident that the development secretary, Penny Mordaunt, would remain.

The Sun reported that Ms. Mordaunt had asked Mrs. May to suspend collective government responsibility when the deal comes to Parliament. That would allow ministers to vote against government policy, which cabinet ministers normally defend.

Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, will resign. – STEPHEN CASTLE

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Theresa May and her Brexit deal have an Irish problem

The Prime Minister 's Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, so does his government connections to the Northern Ireland' s Democratic Unionist Party, which is opposed to the deal even before it was made public.

The D.U.P.'s leader, Arlene Foster, made clear in her statement late Tuesday, that she was not happy with the emerging deal. She was traveling to London on Wednesday.

Jeffrey Donaldson, a senior DUP lawmaker, went further, telling the BBC on Wednesday that what he had heard of the draft Brexit deal "undermines the constitutional and economic integrity" of the United Kingdom, and warns that it was not precipitating a general election by opposing the plan.

The Conservatives hold 315 seats in the House of Commons. May needs the tacit support of the U.P., which has 10 seats and campaigned for Brexit (which a majority of Northern Ireland voters opposed).

The most sensitive aspect of the plan is the so-called "backstop" to prevent physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.

From what is known of the draft, Britain would stay in a union with the European Union until a long-term trade is negotiated. But the obligations on Northern Ireland would be deeper, particularly in the European Union's single market, leading to increased regulatory checks on goods flowing from Britain to Northern Ireland.

That is seen as an almost extinct threat by the U.P., which wants to remain part of the United Kingdom.

For the D.U.P., voting against Mrs. Jeremy Corbyn, the opposing Labor Party leader, to power. Mr. Corbyn has a history of strong ties to Sein Fein, which promotes a united Ireland.

The D.U.P. could be less worried about the possible outcomes of blocking May's plan, such as a no-deal Brexit, and the fact that this could be the case between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. It could also be considered that another referendum that would be less objectionable than that. May's deal. – STEPHEN CASTLE

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Before the prime minister, the backlash begins

Even before the draft Brexit has been published, or the government has made public statements in its defense, with the hard-line Conservatives condemning the plan in statements and television interviews.

The hard-liners argue that the deal would leave. They are also alarmed that Britain would not have a unilateral right to the temporary customs union.

Mrs. May's train Brexit secretary, David Davis, described the deal on Twitter "EU domination, imprisonment in the customs union and 2nd clbad status," and adding that "Cabinet and all Conservative MPs should stand up, be counted and say no to this capitulation."

As she left meetings at 10 Downing Street on Wednesday, Penny Mordaunt, the minister for international development, refused to answer reporters.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, a hard-core Brexit supporter and longtime critic of the government's negotiating strategy, told the BBC that the proposed deal was "a failure of the government's negotiating position and a failure to deliver on Brexit." – STEPHEN CASTLE

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For Brexit, a watery new catchphrase

To the canon of Brexit metaphors – the divorce, the cliff's edge, the cake-eating – negotiators have added another: the swimming pool.

Inscrutable as it may be, that's how diplomats in Brussels are describing a crucial piece of the bargain: the decision on how closely the United Kingdom and the European Union can not negotiate a long-term trade deal after Brexit, the journalist Robert Peston reported.

This swimming pool has two levels. Northern Ireland would be in the deep end, up to its nose in European regulations. That would keep trading frictionless with Ireland, a country that is staying in the European Union, preventing the return of an Irish border.

Great Britain goal would be in the shallow end. It would stay in the European customs union, like Northern Ireland, but escape the single market for goods. That would give it some distance from the bloc's regulations but still prevent it from striking its own trade with non-European countries.

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The division between deep and shallow ends of the pool could be a deal-breaker.

It would mean different trading rules within the United Kingdom, and the prospect of a border – however meaningless European negotiators insist it would be – in the Irish Sea. – BENJAMIN MUELLER

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