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"Why can not Al Gore be right?" Asked my friend while we are undergoing another Canadian winter
Intolerable junkies aside, the global warming alarmists suggest we should be happy if global warming does not happen. But this may not be the case, especially for Canadians
. Recent scientific badysis indicates that if climate models are correct, Canada could claim huge amounts of new cropland before the end of the century. The implications are transformational, not only for the millions of square kilometers that could grow crops for the first time, but also for the direction of scientific research and government policy.
In May 2018, Nature.com published a study entitled Northward Shift of Agricultural Climate Zone Under 21 – Global Climate Change of the Century . It represented the collaborative work of six academics, including some from Memorial University of Newfoundland. The idea was to use models to anticipate what new lands could support crops because of climate change, increasing the number of growing degree days (HDDs). This represents the degrees Celsius above a base temperature (+ 5C for most crops) for each day of the frost-free season
The GDD required by small grains such as oats and Barley was the threshold for delimiting future borders. of agricultural land. Averages were taken for seven climate models to map out areas that, on average, exceeded, exceeded or exceeded the GDD base by 2099.
Results are, well, changing Earth. Globally, only a quarter of boreal regions are now producing crops, but by the end of the century they could be three quarters. In this scenario, the range of arable land could extend north from 400 to 600 additional kilometers in Russia, Finland and West Asia; 900 kilometers in Alberta; and 1200 kilometers in eastern Siberia. This means that an additional 10 million square kilometers could be devoted to agricultural land, including 5.1 million in Russia and 3.1 million in Canada
The authors also predict "transformational" effects on land use in Finland, Sweden and Kyrgyzstan. The cultivated lands north of the parallel could become a reality
But the idea of farming far beyond the polar circle could be far-fetched. Two peer-reviewed studies published in 2017 suggest that models are wrong when it comes to the effects of greenhouse gases on temperatures.
John Christy and Richard McNider Satellite tropospheric bulk temperatures as a measure of climate sensitivity published in the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, demonstrated that global warming since 1979 was only half of what the models suggested that it should be
Similarly, Nature Geoscience published Causes of differences in tropospheric warming rates to show that global warming predicted by climate models after 2000 simply was not there.
Together, these studies challenge Canada's prevailing perception of climate change and our approach to address it
. as it has been established in its evaluation, nor cataclysmic in its implications, as many Canadians have suggested. Policymakers and researchers have focused too much on predicting the effects of climate change and on the focus on preventing these effects by limiting fossil fuels. Billions of dollars spent on solar and wind energy, carbon taxation and regulatory burdens on fossil fuel production, transportation and consumption are slowing economic growth much more than global temperatures.
No oil and no fire ever burned, 98.4% of the world's annual greenhouse gas emissions would still be there. Yet, if the globe warmed as much as climate models suggest, the increase in Canadian farmland would be twice that of Quebec
So, why is Canada seeing climate change with fear and worry instead hope and preparation?
The Nature.com study on the northern quarter indicates that if northern regions like Canada want to be ready, there is work to be done. Seasonal rainfall could be far from ideal in many areas, so winter water storage, summer irrigation and further development of drought-adapted plants will be needed to seize opportunities in many regions. On the other hand, on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, Canada's boreal regions will receive more rain during the growing season than they do at present. This is usually helpful, but it will take more steps to control erosion and drainage.
If climate change erases agricultural land in some places, it will make land conversion and food security more important than ever. In this regard, Newfoundland and Labrador provided the only example of a government "pursuing a food security policy that includes the expansion of agriculture on its territory, currently primarily covered by boreal forests ". In 2017, the province announced planner to double its farmland and increase its food security by at least 20 percent.
Commentator Rex Murphy said, "Vegetables need two things: soil and sun and Newfoundland! We hope the rest of Canada will soon follow
Lee Harding is a Research Associate with the Frontier Center of Public Policy
The views, opinions and opinions expressed by columnists and contributors are solely copyrighted by the author. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and / or positions of our publication.
Agriculture, Canadian Economy, Climate Change, Newfoundland, Newfoundland Economy, Newfoundland Enterprise
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