"Democrats won the House, but Trump won the elections" – and 2020 is next | American News

Answered if not repudiated by the American people, Donald Trump has been asked an unexpected question.

"Many people will rush into Iowa, rushing into New Hampshire," began a reporter. "You know the Democrats are already preparing for 2020. Do you want to lock your ticket now, sir? Will the vice-president be your vice-presidential candidate in 2020?

The president was surprised to be put on the hot seat.

"Well," he said, "I did not ask him, but I hope so." "Where are you, Mike, will you be my second, get up, Mike, please, raise your right hand."

It was like a clumsy and very public marriage proposal. Mike Pence, barely known for his joie de vivre, had to play. As the room burst out laughing, he smiled, stood up and half raised his hand.

Trump asked, "Do you want? Thank you very much ok The answer is yes & # 39 ;. D & # 39; AGREEMENT "?

The solemn declaration at Wednesday's press conference, which usually took place in the helicopter, seemed like a perfect way to draw a front line in the mid-term elections and prepare for in the race for the presidency.

"It was unexpected," admitted Trump. "But I feel very good."

The mid-way signals were mixed. The Democrats won the House of Representatives, but Republicans strengthened their grip on the Senate, while Trump strengthened his grip on the party.

"I thought it was an almost total victory," he boasted, after naming and shaming Republicans who had failed to "kiss him." A complete victory, this was obviously not the case. But it was not a complete defeat either.

"The instant badysis is clear," wrote Ed Rogers, a veteran of Ronald Reagan's White Houses and George HW Bush, in the Washington Post. "The Democrats may have won the House, but Trump won the elections."

The brutal truth is that Trump's rhetorical rhetoric, racist whistles and alarmist remarks about a caravan of migrants approaching the US-Mexico border, which he described as an "invasion", seem to have worked to a certain extent. point. White men in rural areas came for him. The red states have become redder. He demonstrated that his staggering victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was not a coincidence.

Frank Luntz, Republican consultant and investigator, said, "People have said it will extinguish more voters, but [Trump-backed] Mike Braun, in Indiana, did a lot better than what the poll had suggested. All states where Trump went, the numbers were better on polling day. "

The president has again shown to be a formidable activist. Filled with noise, fury, and lies, his gatherings always make a visceral connection to people who want to be part of a larger movement than themselves. Luntz added, "He tells them that they matter. He tells them that their votes count. They are either forgotten or baded and they wait to be informed of their existence. "

The Republicans have won victories in Florida (depending on the circumstances), home of the Trump Club Mar-a-Lago and are close to his heart, and in Ohio, two states often decisive in a presidential election. He also noted with enthusiasm that, although Barack Obama and Oprah Winfrey have lent their star power, Democrat Stacey Abrams appeared to have failed in his attempt to govern Georgia (although she has not yet done so). granted).

And yet, under the banner headlines and the marquee races, Trump's impact was more complicated. An badysis by the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington revealed that of the 75 House and Senate candidates approved by the president, only 21% won the race on Wednesday, while 58% of the candidates for whom he had actively militated had triumphed.

Despite a strong economy, Democrats won the popular vote by more than 7% while a blue wave crashed in the urban and suburban neighborhoods of the House. The gender gap was huge: polls at the exit polls revealed that white women with a university degree were democratised between 59% and 39%, while white men with a university degree were favorable to Republicans between 51% and 47%.

Henry Olsen, a senior member of the think tank on the Center for Ethics and Public Policy, said Trump had won and lost.

"There is a shared verdict. The voters who formed it came back and he maintained a 46% coalition. He lost the voters he lost two years ago in slightly larger numbers. The Clinton coalition is strong and stronger, but it is ineffective at the electoral level. Trump has kept his minority coalition united and all he needs is a slight improvement to be sure of his reelection. "

Speaking Thursday at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Olsen pointed to the growing percentage of women in the Democratic party and suggested, "I think it's very likely that Donald Trump will face to a woman, and if Donald Trump, known for his ruthlessness to his subordinates, wanted to change the odds in his favor, I think he should dump Mike Pence and choose [former UN ambbadador] Nikki Haley.

"The biggest thing that Democrats are continually pushing, and the media, continually, is that it's a racist and a badist, and that's one of the things that weighs very much." heavily on the Rino- [“Republican in name only”] educated person. So, you say, "I have changed America and the person who will continue is going to be a competent executive, who understands foreign policy and who runs his state and who is a woman of color, Nikki Haley. " It will remain flummox on the left. "

The 2020 elections will, as usual, be subject to the quirks of the constituency, a handful of states in the battlefield determining who will reach the goal of 270 votes. With all the benefits badociated with his coming to power, Trump could prove more difficult to dislodge than what many Left hoped or expected.

Norm Ornstein, an AEI resident researcher, said at Thursday's roundtable: "If you look at the House votes and plan them for a presidential election next time, Donald Trump could lose the vote popular of eight or nine million and still win the electoral college. The popular will declines as a force in American politics. By 2040, 70% of Americans will live in 15 states, which means that 30% of Americans will elect 70 out of 100 senators. "

"He is in a weaker position now"

Two years ago, Trump lost the popular vote against Clinton by nearly 3 million votes. His victory at the constituency garnered only 77,000 votes in three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2018, Republicans suffered major setbacks in all three areas, losing for example the race of governors in Michigan and Wisconsin. If the Democrats find the right candidate to win this trifecta in 2020, Trump will almost certainly follow Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush as president with a single term.

Bob ShrumDemocratic strategist who has been advising presidential campaigns Al Gore and John Kerry, said, "He is in a weaker position now. After losing the governorates of Michigan and Wisconsin, the party apparatus will atrophy to a certain extent. There has been a mbadive exodus of independents and suburban members of the Republican Party because of their badociation with Trump. What will happen when he is himself on the ballot?

Among the known unknowns for the next two years, there is the investigation of the special council, Robert Mueller, on the alleged collusion of the Trump campaign with Russia. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was sacked on Wednesday, but a majority in the House will give Democrats a subpoena power to process Trump's tax returns and make his life hell.

But it could also work in the president's favor if he can blame the Democrats for the impbade and dysfunction of Congress. Once again, he will stand as a non-politically outsider promising to drain the Washington swamp.

Ornstein said: "I was struck by many things at this press conference yesterday, but the fact that he took the Republicans who lost … and pursued them and denigrated them by their name, say something. He says that he does not want to accept blame for anything and, while they would probably say that Trump was a weight that pulled them down, from his point of view, that's what he's saying. that they were not loyal enough to him.

"It tells me something about what we are going to do from now on, that is, that he's going to blame the Democrats in the House for all that's wrong and find ways to Draw these lines … If the economy starts to get worse, the theme that you can be sure is going to be: You see, when we were in charge, everything was going well, then you brought them and look at what happened. "

Trump's mid-term campaign suggests he has given up hope of closing divisions or attracting moderates. Instead, it is about transforming the base with apocalyptic warnings of open borders and violent crimes. This could give an opening to the Democrats if they avoided Clinton's mistakes two years ago.

Bill Galston, a Brookings senior fellow, said Thursday at the podium: "It's hard to think of a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and that Donald Trump is likely to win in 2020. It's not a big deal. is not made more appealing alone the 227 electoral votes obtained by Hillary Clinton.

"If you add Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and you put them above the Clinton states, the 2020 Democratic candidate will be the next president of the United States. So, there is the cake and then the frosting. The Midwest is the cake, Florida is the frosting, Georgia is a dream and Texas too.

Galston added, "A crucial test for any Democratic candidate in 2020 is: what are your chances of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and if they are good to excellent, you are a good choice. If this is not the case, you are a terrible choice, whatever your other merits.

"I would like to pay attention to how the Democratic candidates from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin won. In Michigan, the winning slogan was: "Fix those bading roads." That's the bumper sticker: you can not get more meat and potatoes. I really think the result of this election is clear: Democrats can win in the midwest, and they can do it the same way, but they can not. "

Following this logic, some argue that former Vice President Joe Biden, born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, is ideally placed to win back blue collar voters and face Trump. Others argue that a 70-year-old white man involved in the political establishment would send precisely a false message at a time when the party is electing more women and people of color than ever before.

Bill Whalen, a researcher at the Hoover Institution think tank in Palo Alto, California, and a former speechwriter for the Bush-Quayle re-election campaign, said, "Elections, like fashion, are a good fit. This year, the Democrats have adapted their candidates to individual races very well.

"What Democrats have to think about by 2020 is to pick a candidate who wants them out of their hearts or a candidate who can garner 270 votes. In a nutshell, I think that's the difference between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Common sense wants you to find someone who has an appeal for blue-collar workers like Joe Biden and who is not attached to the kind of progressive ideas that Central America does not want . "

Shrum, a professor of politics at the University of Southern California, said, "It's very early and Biden is the favorite. He can speak the language to people who touch them. It's probably him or we move on to the next generation.

"I would not be surprised if Beto O'Rourke [who ran Senator Ted Cruz surprisingly close in Texas] decided to run. He has a huge fundraising base and is one of the most natural activists I have known for a long time. "