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If we were to describe the Toronto Blue Jays as buyers or sellers, the choice would be easy. They would be sellers and willing to trade some wins in 2019 against long-term success.
More realistically, this buying or selling decision is not binary. Competitors like Cleveland can sell parts, and the Blue Jays can buy as easily.
Of course, there are some types players the Blue Jays would prefer to add this winter. They occupy relatively deep positions with more players on the way, so there is less urgency on this front. As for pitching, the Blue Jays clearly have a need.
In these circumstances, one has to wonder how the Blue Jays fetch weapons. Earlier this month, I took a look at some interesting launch options that deserved to be explored, but let's move on to the relief market now.
Dozens of established lifters are available for self-service and I expect the Blue Jays to slow down the game before appealing to Bullpen for the New Year, much as they had done it. Last winter. In the meantime, the trade market is more interesting because it offers players who have yet to establish – potentially at advantageous prices.
This is where the challenge begins. The roles of rescuers evolve quickly, so what exactly are the features of a coveted reliever of the big leagues in 2018? With the help of a handful of scouts and front desk managers, here's what I found:
• Swing and break a ball
• hard thrower
• controllable
• sustainable
• Experience in the leverage effect
These features closely match those that Eno Sarris favored when it came to finding the ideal starter for MLB within The Athletic a few weeks ago. This succession research will therefore reflect Eno's research.
Of course, the results are taken into account to a certain extent, but the teams will not pay for the track record alone, nor will they be impressed by the throwers who flirted with their good scores at the ERA. The thing has to be there.
So, if the Blue Jays are looking to trade launchers with an elite succession potential, where should they start their search?
Find a common ground
On average, MLB players score 10.7% of the shots. When Caleb Frare launched his slider in 2018, the batters sniffed 23.7% of the time (David Banks / AP)
There is no better place to start than to break balls. Some observers have indicated that the 2018 playoffs are proof that the most important moments of the meeting require uncontrollable reactions. This is at least what officials have suggested in October, when they continued to use relief with elite bullets. The best of the best have a secondary secondary swing, so Blue Jays should look for weapons of this caliber.
To identify the launchers with quality breakable terrain, I searched Baseball Savant for the sliders, curves, separators and changes that generated puffs in 2018. Initially, I kept looking wide, starting with each MLB launcher that generated a swing and missed with a brittle ball to make sure I did not miss someone who did not throw that out. a handful of sleeves.
While players like Max Scherzer generate catchy strikes with everything they throw, the Blue Jays do not need relief to meet the challenges. To target launchers who get the most out of a single spin off, I restricted the search by creating a list of the 100 launches that most often generated swings and misfires (for example, the Edwin Diaz slider).
At this point, the reliquors made up the bulk of the list, as well as heavy beginners like Patrick Corbin. Since the goal here is to find records under the radar, I eliminated all starters, the established Bullpen arms and the current Blue Jays, which reduced the list to 65.
Need for hard launchers
As a group, the MLB relief players averaged 93.4 mph with their fastball. Yency Almonte Rocky Mountain right-handed averaged 95.5 m.p.h. while maintaining above-average command (David Zalubowski / AP)
On average, the fast balls of the major leagues have traveled 92.8 m.p.h. in 2018. The Fastballs of the relievers reached 93.4 m.p.h. And the fastballs of the elite bullpen went even faster.
By eliminating all throwers whose fast balls have an average less than 93.4 m.p.h., the list is reduced to 28.
Control issues
Next, let's look at two types of control: years of team control and control of the attack zone. Ideally, the Blue Jays would need someone who could stay a while, so veterans Neil Ramirez and Bruce Rondon are no longer on the list.
It is expensive to look beyond these established players, because teams are sometimes reluctant to give as much to the exchange of players whose background is limited. As one member of the management said, "the workers are scary". In addition, until a pitcher manages to get the most out of major leagues, potential contenders will not be quite sure he's ready for this mental challenge. Nevertheless, the Blue Jays have time here, so they can afford to build new acquisitions by giving them more weight.
Then there is the issue of strike action. Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, for example, defend the batters and get disappointing results, but they have really exceptional features that create wider margins of error. Considering that the MLB's progression rate was 9.3% in 2018, we will eliminate anyone who walked more than 10% of the batters. With that, the list is reduced to 13 players.
Sustainability is a priority
Austen Williams scored a 5.59 ERA in the majors, but he launched a swing-and-miss slider and excelled in the miners last year while avoiding the disabled list (Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP )
The ability to remain on the field is important to the teams, and the most important factor determining future pitching injuries is the injuries of the past.
Of course, every thrower is injured, so we are talking about health in relative terms, but those with the most scary injury history have to leave. In this case, past or present wounds remove from the list of people like Edgar Santana and Luiz Gohara, despite otherwise attractive profiles. Now there are only seven names left.
Finalizing the list
Given the Phillies' interest in improving their paddock and fighting for 2019, it's hard to see them trading Seranthony Dominguez, the group's biggest pitcher remaining.
That leaves six pitchers: Yency Almonte of the Rockies, Adam Conley of Marlins, Amir Garrett of Reds, Jose Castillo of Padres, Austen Williams of Nationals and Caleb Frare of White Sox.
None of these pitchers is a big name, but that was the key: to identify launchers with amazing potential. Their leverage experience being mild, the Blue Jays hoped that these skills would be easier to teach than health or velocity.
All six pitchers have a height that generates jumps and misfires, and they all pitch louder than most lifters. They are all controllable until 2022 or beyond and, relatively speaking at least, they are in good health. As a bonus for a team that could use flexibility, everyone here except Conley still has options for minor leagues. Without knowing their character or detailed injury history, these candidates appear to be ideal candidates for the Toronto office. The Blue Jays should ask everyone questions.
Certainly, the very skills that make them attractive could make their current teams hesitate to talk about trade. Good luck moving away from Castillo des Padres, for example. At the same time, the White Sox acquired Frare early in the year on behalf of silver international slot machines – a potentially encouraging comparison for the Blue Jays.
If they identify the right arm, the Blue Jays could help the pen of their next team in the running. They will eventually need these elite pieces.
In addition, impact attenuators are the most sought after type of player each summer. A few months ago, the Padres converted Brad Hand and his colleague Adam Cimber into Francisco Mejia, one of the top 20 hopefuls in baseball. In this sense, the Yankees have accelerated their recovery by exchanging Chapman and Andrew Miller in the summer of 2016.
The important thing is not to know if the Blue Jays end up overthrowing the relief players or keep them, it's to add powerful throwers that balance and miss, offering control and durability. All teams want this combination and if the Blue Jays have it, they will have the opportunity to buy, sell or keep as they please.
This seems like a good place to be, which should offer a lot of motivation to start looking for these arms now.
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