John Ivison: With "unannounced" budget measures, the Liberals are actually creating a $ 9.5 billion business

Trying to keep track of every dollar spent by Ottawa is a pseudo-science like that practiced by crypto-zoologists in search of Bigfoot – only the gullible could ever believe in a happy ending.

Take the tax update from last week. With fanfare, he announced $ 16.4 billion in new spending measures, mainly $ 14 billion in accelerated investments to improve competitiveness.

Yet, on page 107 of the document, a line discreetly indicates the additional $ 9.5 billion spent on "non-announced measures".

This money is now part of the fiscal framework, which adds to deficits that disappear over the government planning period.

What is spent billions is a mystery. A footnote is the only clue suggesting that the provision concerns "advance cabinet decisions not yet made and funding decisions related to national security, trade sensitivity, trade agreements and litigation".

Opposition parties are not satisfied with the way the government announces – or does not announce – such an important and materially beneficial spending plan.

Pierre-Olivier Herbert, press secretary to Finance Minister Bill Morneau, proved that he had a sense of humor in suggesting to the Liberal government to "raise the bar in transparency" in its financial statements.

It is true that the Trudeau government provides information on what is happening between the fall statements and the budgets in a different way than its predecessor Conservative. But former Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page worked at the Department of Finance in the 1980s and at the Privy Council Office in the 1990s. He does not remember the previous government adjusting the fiscal framework without tell people what it was doing with money.

Herbert said the details will be communicated later – it is understood that the supply management package that will compensate dairy farmers for the loss of market share due to the US free trade agreement -Mexico-Canada is included in the overall amount.

However, the opposition parties are not happy with the way the government announces – or does not announce – such an important and materially beneficial spending plan.

Daniel Blaikie, spokesperson for the Treasury Board of the NDP, said it was understandable that any government that expects a major expense, such as the settlement of a collective agreement, would budget this expense without disclosing the expense. amount during the negotiations.

But these measures have a time horizon of five years and do not provide any clarification to members to determine whether spending is appropriate or not, he said.

The Westminster system is based on the principle that ministers seek the prior sanction of Parliament, telling legislators what they intend to spend on

He noted that the $ 516 million "non-announced measures" allocated in the 2018-19 budget are now estimated at $ 1.75 billion.

"I think the government is looking for new ways to keep their spending out of sight. This does not correspond to their commitment to transparency, "he said.

Conservative Treasury Board spokesman Gerard Deltell described the non-public measures as "slush funds".

"We are talking about billions of dollars. I am very worried. Governments need a pillow to solve urgent problems. But we are currently reading about $ 10 billion. It's very difficult to see exactly what they're going to do with that, "he said.

Page, now president of the Institute of Tax Studies and Democracy of the University of Ottawa, said the government might have an interest in letting the government know about it. Advance Parliament that it plans to adjust the budget planning framework for future announcements.

In the run-up to general elections, this will allow the government to make spending announcements without having to revise the deficit forecasts upwards.

But he stressed that this does not create confidence in the budgeting process.

No kidding. The Westminster system is based on the principle that ministers seek the prior sanction of Parliament, indicating to legislators why they intend to spend money.

The government will still have to seek approval for expenditures, but the Parliamentary Budget Office is examining the opposition's concerns that new spending will be incorporated into departmental spending, making reconciliation more difficult thereafter .

This certainly does not facilitate the tracking of money.

In the end, this may be the goal. Liberals have a tax puzzle. Their credibility in public financial management is based on a reduction in the federal debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years. According to government figures, this is exactly what the government is doing, going from 30.9% this year to 28.5% by 2023-2024.

It's a government that has increased its spending by 22% over its three years in office

Yet this optimistic forecast is based on the fact that the Liberals are limiting direct program spending (and therefore deficits) over the next five years.

The fall announcement suggests that total direct program expenses will rise from $ 149 billion in 2018-19 to $ 161.1 billion in 2023-2024, an increase of 7.5% over five years.

But this government has increased its spending by 22% in three years.

The budget update indicates that program spending as a percentage of GDP will increase from 6.7% to 6%. This is a measure of austerity that would be the pride of Stephen Harper.

Does anybody in Canada believe that Justin Trudeau's Liberals are going to cut anything, beyond the commitment to their "financial anchoring"?

All takers should extend their credulity further and join crypto-zoologists in their hunt for hidden animals.

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