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The Chinese Customs Agency has released unexpected trade data showing that export growth to the United States is slowing down, although badysts have rejected these figures as part of Beijing's tariff campaign .
The most recent data show that the growth of Chinese exports to the United States reached 5.4% between January and June compared to the previous year. This is a slowdown from the pace of 5.8% in the first five months.
Some economists and badysts have downplayed the utility of US-specific data and said that these numbers raised new suspicions about the reliability of government statistics. When trade figures in dollars will be released later this month, exports should have maintained double-digit growth rates in recent months, economists and badysts said. Yet showing that export growth is slowing – at least to some extent – is consistent with the government's less confrontational public message that it is not trying to fight with the United States.
"The timing of the publication is interesting" Yang Weixiao, economist at Founder Securities. "The government wants to compromise to avoid escalating trade disputes, although it will never say it."
The General Administration of Customs did not immediately respond to questions about the timing and reasons for the release. ] The government's information bureau last week released a political document, defending China's record in fulfilling its commitments to the World Trade Organization. On Monday, the Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan wrote in the People's Daily that open up the Chinese economy and participate in the world trading system are "strategic choices" that benefit the development of the China and the world.
Nerves over a possible trade war beat China's stock markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 2.5% on Monday. The yuan fell briefly to its lowest level against the US dollar in nearly a year, falling below a key level of 6.7.
China's trade surplus with the United States has widened even though its total trade surplus has been shrinking, as wealthier Chinese businesses and households are importing more goods. Economists do not expect the imbalance – that the Trump administration claims to be $ 3.75 billion in favor of China last year – is corrected in the short term, mainly due to the strong demand of US consumers and the weakening of the yuan. Export growth in yuan terms reflects Beijing's position on the trade fight, but will not appease the United States, said Shuang Ding economist of Standard Chartered Bank. "The key is not slowing export growth – what Trump wants is to reduce the trade imbalance that is still big and growing."
In the first big end in the trade war, the # Trump administration is expected to charge 25 percent duty on 34 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and Beijing said it would match US tariffs in terms of value.
While economists expect tariffs to undermine trade – and the Chinese and US economies – recent data suggests that this has not been done yet. Instead, some companies, say economists as well as customs and government officials, are export orders.
Orders received in the first half of this year exceeded last year's total, said Liu Tian Trading, a company based in Tangshan City, in the north of the country, which exports only restrooms and toilets. other bathroom accessories in North America. A stronger dollar "has made customers more willing to stock up on merchandise, and that also means a bigger profit margin for us," he added.
Adding to questions on the publication of Monday's export figures Since May has suspended the publication of some key trade data, including raw materials, citing "technical reasons".
"The more the government tries to hide, the more the market could panic," said Yang of Founder Securities.
Additional report: Lin Zhu
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