Monde Bizarro: conflicts over tariffs are not clearly defined mid-term

WASHINGTON – If the mid-term elections were supposed to erase the uncertainty of tariffs, trade and other plots on the window of Canada-US affairs, see the weird world of US politics. # 39; America.

A Democratic majority in the House of Representatives was "very close to a complete victory" for President Donald Trump. Elections are both complete and unfinished, thanks to vote-counting disputes in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. There is a new trade agreement, but the White House and Canada are still looking at each other between steel and aluminum.

So, good luck knowing when, or if, the new Congress will ratify the new US-Mexico-Canada agreement.

"We do not know it yet," said Ohio trade lawyer Dan Ujczo, about the likely vote of new members of the House when Capitol Hill would adopt the USMCA. He fears that it will be in a year or more.

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Related: Mid-term results in the United States could delay the conclusion of a new trade agreement in 2020, warn observers [PLANT]

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Many categorical yes voters defeated midway, they added, including John Culberson, a Texas congressman, and Pete Sessions, Erik Paulsen of Minnesota and David Young of Iowa, among others, introducing another element of uncertainty in the current political dynamics to know little else.

Uncertain does not mean no, said Ujczo, partner of the American Commerce and Customs Company Dickinson Wright.

"Are they first-year students, are they going to be trained in the direction of their caucus or do they reflect the opinion of their constituents?", He said. "They will be under a lot of pressure to vote Yes, but it takes time – and maybe it's time we did not have it."

While the hard-won agreement that was reached six weeks ago at the 11th hour after a 13-month marathon of tough talks is waiting for the vote, the terms of the deal nearly 25 years ago that 39, it was supposed to replace remain in force, officials in Ottawa say.

Powerful Republicans who oppose tariffs, such as Iowa Senator Chuck Grbadley, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, are still present and exerting their influence, they note. The same is true of influential Democrats who prefer the new deal to the old, like the leader of the Senate minority, Chuck Schumer, and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

But these tariffs on steel and aluminum still exist.

"There have been high level talks, but no direct negotiations," Canadian Ambbadador to the United States David MacNaughton said on Friday about the plan to resume tariff negotiations with the American tsar of Commerce, Robert Lighthizer.

"I saw Ambbadador Lighthizer last week and I told him," When you're ready, sit down and talk. "

MacNaughton acknowledged that the mid-term reviews may have raised more questions than answers. However, there is little fear in the Canadian community that Congress will do anything other than approve the agreement, if at all.

"There is a lack of clarity at the moment," he said. "But as people start to understand the agreement better, I think you'll be surprised at how much support there is."

Another paradox: one might think that a weakened Republican caucus would undermine Trump's doctrine that tariffs would be used to secure more favorable trading conditions. In fact, if the members who survived the mid-term feel the need to be closer to the president, the opposite might be true.

"The challenge is that the Trump administration, as well as the American electorate, create a realignment of the ideology of both parties," said Capri Cafaro, former legislator of Ohio turned university policy.

"Some of the traditional liberal parties of the Republican Party think that tariffs are ridiculous … then you have Trump Republicans who have actually adopted this more protectionist economic policy. These two factions of the Republican Party will not agree. "

This may be one of the reasons why, at a press conference at the White House on Tuesday, the President seemed genuinely applauded by the results, even taking the time to read a list of Republican victims who had refused his help during the election campaign.

"These are some of the people who, you know, have decided for their own reason not to kiss … me or what we stand for. But what we stand for means a lot to most people, "he said. "I'm not sure to be happy or sad, but I feel good."

While it is true that Democrats have won in a number of congressional districts where tariffs were a problem, as in the agricultural country of Ohio, the margin of victory has not improved. not enough to suggest to Ujczo that the result should be considered a repudiation of Trump's trade. doctrine.

"What we did not see on Tuesday is where these farmers, an agricultural country that loses half of their livelihoods because of these tariff struggles, move to the Democratic Party. They did not do it, he said.

"I think it might be exaggerated to say that we are in favor of pursuing this trade policy forever, but they leave the president aside."

News from © Canadian Press Enterprises Inc. 2016