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NOTIntendo's goal for the Switch this year is ambitious: they want to sell 20 million units of the console during this exercise. To be very clear, this does not mean that they want the console to reach 20 million units in lifetime sales this year, it is already the case. The 23 million units sold during the Switch exceed even those of the GameCube. No, it means very clearly and explicitly that between April 1, 2018 and March 31, 2019, they want to sell 20 million units of the Nintendo Switch.
That's … an incredible forecast. This is very ambitious, and especially for a console in its second year hardly, it would be almost unprecedented. Given the pace of Nintendo's Switch publications, there was good reason to believe that the console could reach these numbers this year, as Tatsumi Kimishima, president of Nintendo, first raised this idea. If Nintendo could maintain the same release pace as in 2017, after all, console sales would surely stay on their current trajectory, and we could expect the Switch to sell. lot. Especially since some of the biggest heavy hitters of Nintendo have not yet been launched.
"There have not been a lot of major releases for the Switch this year – some major, third, and Nintendo ports, and a few unbelievable independent games, but not many major versions for retail. "
The fact is that it did not happen. The Switch continued to sell well, but the pace was not accelerated along the trajectory we could have taken at the end of last year. This was largely due to a very quiet two year for the console. There have not been many major releases for the Switch this year. Some major ports, thirds and Nintendo, and some unbelievable independent games, but not many major versions for retail. Traveling Octopathus and Fortnite are probably the biggest launches in the mbad market that Switch has had until October of the entire fiscal year. And these are great games, but Octopathe is ultimately a JRPG based on the turn with a ceiling on his sales, and Fortnite works on a toaster at this stage. They will not push sales like Mario, Mario Kart, Splatoon, or Zelda would have.
The result of all this is that during the first six months of this fiscal year, the Switch sold 5.03 million units, an increase from one fiscal year to the next, but that means that Nintendo must now sell 15 million units in the coming months. six months. Yes, these six months include the upcoming holiday season, traditionally the one where Nintendo succeeds the most, but it should be that they literally record a record for the Christmas shopping season, selling more than any other system, computer pocket or console, to achieve this goal. high number 20 million.
Many think that it should not be out of reach of Nintendo. After all, their vacation range is strong-it is strong. While the first semester of the year has been barren with respect to significant new releases, the last few months Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let Go, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, and New Super Mario Bros. U DX one after the other. It's an enviable palette of games, all of which have huge appeal for the mbad market, and most importantly, they include Pokémon and Super Smash Bros. The first is the largest multimedia franchise of all time, while the second is one of the largest hardware manufacturers of Nintendo. Obviously, that means that they are defined, right?
"While the first semester has been barren with respect to significant new releases, the last few months will see Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let Go, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, and New Super Mario Bros. U DX one after the other. It's an enviable palette of games, all of which have huge appeal for the mbad market, and most importantly, they include Pokémon and Super Smash Bros. "
Not really. There are warnings on the whole. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate of course looking to be an extraordinarily strong title up to now, but Pokémon this year is not the Pokémon. It's a smaller scale, with reduced spin-offs until the true Pokemon 8 to go out next year. Pokemon Let GoDesign decisions, which included the slaughter of wild Pokémon battles, excluding those that go beyond the original Pokémon, and several other choices that make the game much less nuanced than the main games, caused a vicious outcry of the part of the fans. All this was done in an attempt to go after the Pokemon GO crowd of play
Now, in the end, Pokemon Let Go seems to be a big game for what it is, and will sell obviously because of its Pokémon. But unless a significant number of people play Pokemon GO with the smartphone they already have for free, they are sure to spend $ 300 in Switch, then $ 60 in play, this will not encourage users to use the system. bad Pokémon Fans who do not have the Switch yet will not receive it for Let's go As mentioned before, the game has done everything to alienate them and they are probably waiting for next year's title before launching.
So smash looks great, but he can not carry the switch to this target by himself. While Mario Party, NSMBU, and Pokémon will all contribute some global, they are not enough to bring the switch to 20 million. If it was a main line Pokémon upcoming game Smash Bros.I would have easily argued that this goal could be achieved without problem. But this is not the case, which means that the target is now more inaccessible than it otherwise would have been. The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that at least two major games were to hit the Switch in 2018-2018.The craft world of Yoshi and Fire Emblem Three Houses. Both were postponed to 2019. I do not know how much they would have individually managed to sell the Switch, but their delay did not help, as it puts even more pressure on smash and very divisive Pokémon game to perform.
"smash looks great, but he can not carry the switch to this target by himself. While Mario Party, NSMBU, and Pokémon will all contribute some global, they are not enough to bring the switch to 20 million. If it was a main line Pokémon upcoming game Smash Bros.I would have easily argued that this goal could be achieved without problem. But this is not the case, which means that the target is now more inaccessible than it otherwise would have been. "
It is also clear that Nintendo hoped that Labo would take off and broaden the switch's appeal to the larger, more casual audience that originally purchased the DS and Wii. That has up to here do not come. Labo sold a few million dollars of Nintendo's multiple kits, but failed to expand the Switch's appeal beyond the main player or boost hardware sales. It is quite possible for the Lab to take off suddenly during this vacation period, as parents are looking to buy consoles for their children – in this case, all bets are in vain. But would they do it when they could, for example, offer their kids a PS4 for $ 200 with Spider Man included?
Which brings me to the next point. Nintendo does not have a significant deal on Black Friday, which is primarily what drives spending during the holiday shopping season. Yes, they have a $ 300 package with Mario Kart 8 Deluxeand it's fantastic, it will sell a lot. But there is no price drop here. Sony offers one of its latest games and their console for $ 100 cheaper than what Nintendo offers to the Switch. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has a lot more market appeal than Spider Man, of course, and it helps tremendously, but in the end, the price is king at Black Friday, and $ 200 is a better price than $ 300. Unless Nintendo announces a price cut, the PS4 will lose a lot of its sales this holiday season.
The counter-argument of all my arguments so far is that Nintendo has not yet reduced its financial forecast this year. In fact, during the financial statement released this week, they reiterated the projection of 20 million units. So, surely they expect to be able to sell that amount, even with the mitigating factors I've identified? The answer to this question is no, not necessarily. Projections are made to investors, and investor confidence is paramount to keeping your stock price up. If Nintendo cut forecasts just before the Christmas holidays, investors would panic and unload Nintendo shares, causing a catastrophic contraction in their price. It is traditionally for this reason that Nintendo has not revised its guidelines down to after the holiday shopping season. Even at the time of Wii U, they would not revise their goals until the last quarter of the fiscal year, if that were necessary. I fully expect Nintendo to review its goals in its January report in the same way.
"Am I saying that the switch is doomed?" No, of course not. very well anyway. It will probably sell between 17 and 18 million units, which would be quite the second year of PS4 and would be close to the forecast. I imagine that the forecast of 20 million units sold is one thing that Nintendo is well prepared to meet next year too, with a better range. "
What does all this mean? Do I mean that the switch is doomed? No of course not. I plan to do it very well anyway. It will probably sell between 17 and 18 million units, which would be quite the second year of PS4 and would be close to the forecast. I imagine that the forecast of 20 million units sold is one thing that Nintendo is well prepared to meet next year too, with a better range. Overall, the switch is doing well and will continue to do so, even if the target of 20 million euros is not achieved.
And, of course, there is a possibility. I may be wrong. May be Pokemon Let Go off. Maybe Labo's sales are exploding. May be Ultimate Smash generates more sales than anyone could have anticipated. May be Crossing of animals for Switch will be launched in early March, which means it gets a last-minute boost before the end of the exercise. Who knows? You can never say with Nintendo. As it stands, however, from what we know, $ 20 million in this fiscal year seems unlikely.
This does not mean that the switch is doomed. Anyway, everything will be fine. It simply means that Nintendo has exceeded some expected sales.
Note: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of GamingBolt as an organization, and should not be attributed to it.
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