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As Russia prepares to get Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques off the ground next week, back on Earth, its space program faces existential questions about its ability to find a niche in a rapidly changing sector and to stay relevant.
The mission of Saint-Jacques, his first voyage in space, will also be the first manned trip to the International Space Station (ISS) since the failed launch of Soyuz MS-10 on 11 October.
December 3 will be a moment of great esteem for Roscosmos, the Russian version of NASA.
The Russian Space Agency is only facing an existential crisis, said Pavel Luzin, space badyst and university professor at Perm in the Russian city of L & # 39; 39; Ural.
"I'm afraid we are not a reliable partner for the United States and the Europeans," said Luzin, author of his doctorate on Russian and American space policy. "I see the decline [and] a long-term crisis that stems from our inability to adapt our economic and scientific policy to the contemporary world. "
Russian and foreign critics argue that production problems and financial problems, which have led to problems and failures in launching Roscosmos' unmanned space program, are now beginning to affect its manned missions.
Luzin said the space program was particularly important for President Vladimir Putin because it is one of the few areas where Russia can still advocate for equality with United States.
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The October Soyuz MS-10 mission ended in no time, just two minutes after the flight began, after the spacecraft's booster rockets did not separate properly.
Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP / Getty Images
This automatically triggered the crew capsule's emergency evacuation system, sending American and Russian astronauts to a fall three times faster than usual – a so-called "ballistic descent".
Russian investigators concluded to the failure of a curved sensor designed to detect the separation of booster. The piece of metal two centimeters long was damaged by mechanics or engineers during badembly on the launching pad.
"Fortunately, engineers around the world have worked very hard to get to the bottom of things," said St. Jacques at CBC during an interview in Moscow. "We are very confident now to know what has happened and we have found ways to ensure that it does not happen again."
I hope so. But Russian engineers also tried to explain a problem discovered in September: a hole drilled in the Russian orbiter section of the ISS.
At first, some leaders of Roscosmos have suggested that it could be a case of sabotage by American astronauts aboard the ISS. But now it seems to have been done on Earth, by someone in a Russian factory who then tried to conceal their mistake.
Yuri Kochetkov / Reuters
An overwhelming report published this week by the Kremlin's own auditors shows just how astronomical the financial and production problems of the Russian space program are.
According to the RIA Novosti news agency, Alexei Kudrin, chairman of the Russian Chamber of Accounts, said: "We have big problems with Roscosmos."
Kudrin suggested that there had been mismanagement. "Several billion [of rubles] have been lost – that is, essentially stolen – and investigations are ongoing. "
He told a Russian TV channel that "irrational spending" abounds, the agency paying exorbitant prices to contractors and that Roscosmos loses somehow the money needed for unfinished or inactive projects.
On Tuesday, Russian prosecutors revealed that they had initiated 16 criminal proceedings against employees of Roscosmos, ranging from irregular purchase to fraud, to fraud, to delivery of products. defective or of poor quality.
The agency said more than 200 officials were involved in the violations. Prosecutors cited US $ 152 million diverted during the construction of the new Russian spaceport in Vostochny, in the far east of the country.
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For at least next year, Russia and the United States have no choice but to work together.
Since the end of the NASA space shuttle program, Russian rockets Soyuz have been the only way to convince NASA astronauts – as well as others from Canada, Europe and Japan – to join ISS.
The roughly $ 500 million that NASA pays each year to Roscosmos for Soyuz seats, as well as parts for other rockets, is an essential complement to the US $ 1.8 billion budget that Roscosmos receives. from the Putin government.
But by the end of 2019, NASA plans to transfer the transport work of its astronauts to private US companies developing less expensive and reusable rockets, as well as reusable crew caps.
Pavel Luzin, space badyst at Perm, said that companies such as Boeing, Elon Musk's SpaceX and Blue Origin by Jeff Bezos were about to badume the tasks now performed by Roscosmos . And the Russian agency was not able to demonstrate that it could compete with emerging space technologies.
"The Russian space industry still operates as the Soviet space industry and can only operate in a market environment".
In interviews with CBC, Roscosmos officials downplayed the challenges and expressed their optimism for the future.
"The more you fly, the more risk you will take," said Sergei Krikalev, director of human spaceflight in Roscosmos, who oversees the mission of Santiago.
Krikalev expressed confidence in the investigation that followed the unsuccessful launch and in the measures implemented by Roscosmos since.
"Many people are working to ensure the safety and reliability of the equipment," he said.
Krikalev said Roscosmos launched an unmanned Soyuz rocket on November 16 without incident, indicating that the recall problem had been resolved.
Although based on the technology developed more than 60 years ago, many variants of Soyuz rockets have been remarkably durable. Prior to the October incident, Roscosmos had made 53 successfully populated launches.
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Publicly, NASA officials have supported Russia's efforts to cope with the Soyuz accident and have expressed confidence in the Roscosmos management team.
But in an unusual move, NASA has asked Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin to travel to the United States in early 2019 for a series of talks on the future of space cooperation.
Former Russian Deputy Prime Minister closely linked to Putin, Rogozin is on the US sanctions list and has banned travel to the United States. His trip requires a special derogation from the US State Department, which testifies to the importance that NASA attaches to such face-to-face discussions.
Rogozin outlined ambitious plans for Russia's space program in the coming decades. They include participation in the US lunar space station proposal, the development of new Angara heavy rockets and a reusable crew capsule called Federation that could someday take astronauts to Mars.
Despite a decade of development, the new heavy rocket program has only been successfully launched. There is no timetable for the completion of the Federation. And a new spaceport in the Russian Far East to replace the Baikonur cosmodrome (which Russia leases in Kazakhstan) in the Soviet era is not able to handle manned launches.
David Saint-Jacques, who spent the last two years learning Russian and training in the Star City complex in Russia, outside of Moscow, minimized concerns about the situation of the Russia in the years to come.
"The Russians are extremely proud of their accomplishments in space and they all have good reasons to be proud," he said.
"There are so many new ways to go into orbit, and with all these players, I think we have a bright future."
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