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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's latest visit to China marked a major effort to restore the tumultuous relations between the two Asian giants in a context of historical grievances, territorial disputes in the East China Sea and geopolitical rivalries as a result of Beijing's rapid influence in the region.
On the first official visit of a Japanese leader since 2011, Abe, who ended his three-day trip to Beijing on Saturday, appeared to have achieved his goal of getting the equals back on track after a seven-year nadir.
Concluding the efforts of Beijing and Tokyo over the past year to re-establish their troubled ties, the two sides agreed to set aside their political differences and pledged to strengthen their economic ties and promote free trade in the world. a climate of uncertainty and protectionism growing.
In the face of trade tensions with Washington, the two parties signed more than 500 agreements worth more than US $ 2.6 billion, ranging from infrastructure, energy and automotive projects to a $ 30 billion deal .
They also agreed not to threaten or directly aggression against each other and decided to step up diplomatic and military high – level exchanges through the United States. a constructive dialogue amid speculation about a planned visit to Japan by President Xi Jinping.
Abe said the trip highlighted a "historic turning point" in bilateral relations that had bottomed out.
"Moving from competition to collaboration, bilateral relations have entered a new phase," he told reporters after "frank" discussions with Prime Minister Li Keqiang on Friday. "Japan and China are neighbors and partners and we must avoid becoming threats to each other," he said.
The visit took place amidst rapid changes in the world order. A shift in power dynamics – years to come – has occurred in emerging China and international business giants, including the United States and Japan, which China has outgrown. Second world economy in 2010.
More importantly, the trip coincided with the escalation of the tariff war between Beijing and Washington and an imminent confrontation over national interests that far exceeded trade frictions as part of US President Donald Trump's strategy.
As a result, Abe, described as "unwelcome person" by the Chinese authorities five years ago, was treated with unusual hospitality, encouraged to take part in lengthy discussions and organized with sumptuous banquets with Xi and Li.
The main Chinese leaders described in an unusually simple way the delicate moment of Abe's visit.
In a meeting with Abe on Friday, Xi Xi said the two countries should move the links into a "new historical direction" as "instability and uncertainties grow" around the world.
Xi urged Abe to work with China, noting that the two countries "share common interests and broader and more pluralistic concerns" – a veiled reference at a time of difficult times and relations with Trump's White House.
Although neither party has disclosed any other details, it is widely believed that Abe personally invited Mr. Xi to visit Japan when the Chinese leader will attend the summit. Group of 20 on developed and emerging economies in Osaka in June.
If accepted, it would be the first visit of a Chinese leader to Japan since the 2008 trip of his immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao.
Although Xi and Abe have met at least eight times at multilateral events, Abe's visit last week was the first one in the form of an official visit by the two sides since taking office in 2012.
Experts believe that although few breakthroughs have been made on contentious bilateral issues, Abe's trip to Beijing still had symbolic significance for Sino-Japanese relations and international politics in Trump's time.
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Sino-Japanese relations, like Beijing's love-hate relationship with Washington, have intrinsic problems, according to Yun Sun, the program's senior badociate for East Asia at the Washington-based Stimson Center. The list includes the war history of countries, territorial disputes in the East China Sea, deep-rooted mistrust and hostility, regional competition and the US-Japan military alliance.
"The political success of this trip lies in its symbolic meaning," Sun said. "After seven years of nadir, Sino-Japanese relations are finally improving. And that in itself is a feat for both leaders. "
Although "Japan and China have conditions and needs to improve their relationship now," they "do not remove in any way the points of friction between the two, and these friction will reoccur in the future," said Sun. "So, I do not see this as a permanent turning point, but the beginning of another turning point, this time positive."
A look at the recent history of Sino-Japanese relations shows largely a cyclical pattern since the 1980s, when efforts to improve relations were often halted by conflicts over the past and nationalist sentiments that prevailed in the country. war.
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Abe himself is no stranger to the ups and downs of the relationship over the last ten years.
His trip to China in October 2006 as newly elected Prime Minister, just months after the holding of a large anti-Japanese demonstration in spring 2005 in China, was hailed at the time by Chinese leaders. as a "turning point" in both countries. tense relations of nations.
The protest was triggered by persistent visits by former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals were honored, creating friction with East Asia's neighbors in the east. Japan.
However, Abe's success in the rapprochement with China did not last.
Relations between Japan and its main trading partner were again affected by a new wave of more violent anti-Japanese protests in 2012 over disputes over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, a group of known uninhabited islets under the name of Diaoyu in China.
The bloody demonstrations, which lasted more than 50 days and saw the anger of Chinese protesters boycotting Japanese products, stemmed from the decision made by the then Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, to put the islets under control. of the State in September 2012.
Monika Chansoria, a foreign policy expert and senior researcher at the Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo, said it would be premature to wait for a resolution of long-standing tensions and disputes in Sino-Japanese relations following of Abe Abe's last visit.
"Deep divergences between perspectives and strategic approaches, national policies and pressures, ambitions and regional strategies, will likely continue to play a key role in shaping the future of Sino-Japanese relations in East Asia and Africa. beyond, "she said.
"For Japan, the normalization of relations with China remains a thorny subject."
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Chansoria said that incidents such as a Chinese submarine entering the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands in January and Beijing's excessive military spending in the region would continue to be the strategic backbone on which bilateral relations would rest.
Abe's visit came as China was increasingly fearful of being isolated internationally as a result of the trade war with the United States, she said.
"The direct consequence of China's fear is the hope and desire to stimulate Japanese investment, especially as economic growth slows in China," she said.
"As for Japan, by ending the supply of development aid to China since 1979, the Abe administration plans to establish new economic relations with China, more based on a equal footing and not providing China with unbalanced benefits. . "
Lee Myon-woo, a Japanese expert and vice president of the Sejong Institute in Seoul, said the Xi-Abe summit would have no chance of solving structural problems in relations between countries.
"Bilateral relations will improve after the summit, but Japan will likely continue to continue [with] its containment strategy in China to limit China's growing influence over the Asia-Pacific region, "he said.
"After all, Japan is a major ally of the United States. In fact, he has repeatedly promised to strengthen his alliance with Washington. Japan will continue to implement strategies to control China's regional influence and is less likely to tolerate its badertiveness in the region. "
Most badysts agree that Trump's unpredictable and often incoherent style – as well as his capricious actions against free trade and globalization – are essential factors in the latest "renormalization" of Beijing-Tokyo ties. .
Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the China University of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, said Abe's visit was a turning point in relations between the two countries and said trade tensions with the United States had given to both countries a new impetus to correct their differences.
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This visit, he said, marked the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship. She also followed Li's visit to Japan in May, the first of a Chinese prime minister since 2011.
"It is a reinforcement and strengthening of high-level political exchanges, which will strengthen mutual political trust," Zhou said.
"The trade war is not good for China or Japan because it targets both countries, and US tariffs on iron and steel strike Japan even harder, because their exports of these materials far exceed China, "he said.
"Despite this, Japanese leaders refuse to attack the United States directly because their alliance with them is at the center of their foreign policy strategy. But they are nevertheless aligned with China on the trade front. "
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Abe's visit to Beijing, he said, will pave the way for increased cooperation, including the signing of commercial contracts between the two sides, as well as probable agreements on the East China Sea. Bilateral maritime trade and an agreement expected to extend the currency swap line, to about 3 trillion Japanese yen (26.8 billion US dollars).
Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for Global Security Analysis, said Trump's recent radical trade and military policies in China – a catalyst for the historic fall of Sino-US relations – had put Japan in a precarious situation.
"Tokyo does not want to be forced to choose between the United States, a distant brother and an ally of the treaty, and China, a neighbor more and more powerful," he said.
Luft said the two sides were willing to put their traditional claims on hold for a while due to new challenges – trade disputes, China's shift to Russian arms control Iran and North Korea Trump.
"All these problems have been exacerbated by Trump's often inconsistent and capricious actions," he said.
"Abe is working hard to stay on the good side of Trump but deep down, he is not a fan." Xi is even less so, yet both leaders are looking for stability and continuity in their relations with Washington and wish align their positions before facing Trump next month in Argentina "on the sidelines of the G20 summit, he said.
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Yun Sun, of the Stimson Center, also said that the Abe visit would bring a new twist to the triangular relations between the United States, China and Japan.
"The United States may be decoupling their Chinese and Chinese economies, but they can not ask other countries to do the same. Although it seems that Beijing and Tokyo are getting closer to one another, it should be remembered that their relationship was under zero temperature.
"So, even though things are improving, they are not comparable to the US-Japan relationship, which is the strongest alliance in the region," she said.
For Xi, whose self-badertion diplomacy has been overturned in the United States and among China's Asian neighbors, the priority would be to improve relations with regional powers such as Japan. and India to counterbalance US pressures, said David Zweig, a professor at the University of Hong Kong. Science and technology.
Xi "has a lot of incentives to put aside the traditional anti-Japanese hostility that Chinese leaders still feel towards Japan and especially Mr. Abe," he said. said, adding that it was also good for the image of the Chinese leader as a statesman.
Abe has probably understood it well and would prefer to have better ties with China, even though he maintains his support for the US-led quadrilateral alliance with Australia and the United States. 39; India.
"If he can get by, Abe could become a potential middleman between the United States and China," Zweig said.
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However, the intense disgust – and even hatred – that peoples of both countries feel for each other could be a major problem for the future.
According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted early in the year over 25 years in China as a whole, the Japanese had the most negative perception of China: nearly eight out of ten Japanese expressed an unfavorable opinion from their Asian neighbor.
Echoing the dominant negative views of Xi at the international level, the trust that the Chinese president would do the right thing in international affairs was particularly weak in Japan, with only 17% of Japanese trusting him.
The survey showed that trust in Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin were also low worldwide.
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This article establishes a historical connection between China and Japan after Shinzo Abe's visit, but can goodwill hold? first appearance on South China Morning Post
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