The slowdown in investor trade fear has already happened

The data suggest that synchronized global growth that has supported global markets and corporate profits for last year is already starting empty and this slowdown is likely to have a greater impact on trade than the ongoing conflict between the United States, China and other major economies, badysts and investors say. 19659006] "There is a huge correlation between Asian exports and Asian recipes – you can extend this badysis of global trade to global profits," said Tai Hui, chief markets strategist for Asia at JP Morgan Asset Man Companies in sectors like consumer electronics are already suffering, he said.

For almost half a year, surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector indicate a decline in international demand. 19659017] In June, the share of JP Morgan's new global manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5, its lowest in almost two years. The figure remains above 50, indicating that export orders continue to increase, but it has declined each month since its most recent peak at 54.2 in January.

Order data closely reflects annual changes in world trade volumes, World Trade Merchandise Trade's 4.8% Increase in Last Year – the highest since 2011, according to the World Bank, and representing $ 1.13 trillion in goods traded – should not be repeated

this slowdown will likely reach hundreds of billions of dollars – eclipsing the value of trade involved in the row between the United States and China. The US tariffs to be applied on Friday cover $ 34 billion (all US figures) in Chinese goods; China levies retaliatory duties on an equivalent amount of US exports

Tariffs already imposed – such as the United States imposed imports of steel and aluminum – may not have significant impact on most Chinese companies. steel and aluminum companies, most of the exports are actually interregional. This is only 0.1% of the total production capacity that goes even to the United States for Chinese steel mills. Aluminum is only 2%, "said Catherine Yeung, investment director at Fidelity International.

The slowdown in global trade better explains the recent mbadive sales of bonds and bonds. 39 Emerging market equities as fears of increasing protectionism.The Canadian research firm argued in a report last week.Every decline in trade will likely first affect the economies forming part of the processes. globalized manufacturing, like those of several emerging Asian countries.

"When world trade develops, the weaker parts of the chain are doing well. Conversely, when world trade growth weakens, these weak links are the first to collapse, "said Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research

. There is a link between the rise of protectionist policies and "It may be that companies anticipate that trade will become more difficult with China or with the United States and adjust their supply chains", said Joanna Konings, Senior International Business Economist at ING in Amsterdam

The latest German manufacturing PMI, a major player in global supply chains, gives some weight to this interpretation. the export was the weakest for over two years, and a number of companies have mentioned lower orders from the United States and the United States. hine.

Even small tariffs can have significant effects on business confidence. According to Morgan Stanley's strategists, the imposition of tariffs in a world of multinational and integrated supply chains could be self-defeating and would likely pbad to US consumers. "If the trade dispute becomes more complicated, if both parties do not want to change their position, you could end up with a much more serious disruption," said William Yuen, investment director at Invesco