Trump wants voters to think that the US economy is booming, is not it? | American News

"We're going to win so much, you're going to get tired of winning," Donald Trump promised during the election campaign before his election. And as the President faces his first mid-term vote, the big test for Trump will be whether voters are tired of winning or getting tired of him.

On many measures, the US economy exploded under Trump. Unemployment is at its lowest level since the first landing on the moon, stock markets remain near record highs, business confidence is up, Trump trade deals have been called "unfair" and ongoing rewriting. On Friday, the latest government employment report showed wages were rising at their highest rate since 2009.

If Republicans vote Tuesday and surpbad expectations – despite Trump's unpopularity – many experts will likely use the campaign citation invented by James Carville, Bill Clinton's strategist, to explain the result: "C & # 39; is the economy, stupid. "

Trump pushes his hard line on immigration more difficult than his economic record. Polls show that economic problems become less of a factor when the economy is healthy.

Immigration can play well for its base, but voting voters will decide this election, and the economy is still a big problem. According to Gallup, in September, 13% of US voters said economic problems were at the top of their agenda, which equals the number of people involved in immigration.

Hesitant voters may well watch the numbers as they decide who gets their vote. The top line of "Trumponomics" looks good. A deeper dive reveals uncomfortable facts about the US economy, but headlines may be enough to propel Republicans to power.

Unemployment rate

The US unemployment rate reached 3.7% in September, its lowest rate since 1969. The United States has now created jobs for 96 consecutive months, the longest period of growth for the United States. employment since the beginning of the records. The majority of these jobs were added under Barack Obama's presidency, but he is no longer president.

But what types of jobs have been added? Wage growth has lagged behind employment growth since the recession, suggesting that the types of jobs added by the United States are lower paid and that, thanks in part to union decline, employers still have the upper hand over wage bargaining despite tighter working conditions. market.

The mining sector has created 53,000 jobs over the past year. Trump campaigned to end the "war on coal". But compare that with health care, where there are many low-paying jobs that have created 302,000 additional jobs.

The proof is in the pockets of the workers. The October employment report indicated that wages were growing at an annual rate of 3.1%, the highest rate since 2009, but still well below the 4.2% average just prior to the 2001 recession.

Stock markets

Trump has tweeted 67 times on the stock markets – more than 10 times the number of tweets mentioning his daughter Tiffany.

Under his leadership, the Dow, S & P and Nasdaq companies all reached unprecedented highs, fueled by $ 1.5 billion in tax breaks, aggressive deregulation and a dynamic global economy.

Now he is worried. As the Federal Reserve raises rates, stock markets falter and Trump has publicly attacked the Fed, an unprecedented initiative for a sitting president. China's growth is slowing down, Europe once again seems to be heading for trouble, some economists predict a recession next year.

And maybe Trump should be worried about where these stock market gains have gone. The top 10% of US households owned 84% of all stocks in 2016, according to an article from New York University economist Edward Wolff. This includes all the shares held by the bottom 90% in 401k retirement savings, university funds and other investments.

Thus, while stock markets have exploded, profits have benefited disproportionately to the rich. This is not the real estate boom, which has enriched the wealth of many middle-income Americans during its lifetime. But if the stock markets fall, which will inevitably be the case, the poorest 90% will probably feel it first when companies downsize to reduce costs and appease shareholders who have already done so well.

Trade

Trade wars are "good and easy to win," Trump said in March, before tackling all the major trading partners of the United States in the largest trade dispute of his generation.

To be fair to the president, the trade issue has not yet been as catastrophic as expected. And Canada and Mexico, the largest trading partners of the United States behind China, are now at the negotiating table and are working on a new deal. But China is another matter. Relationships seem to be deteriorating. And the EU, having called for a ceasefire in July, is still bristling and has brought its dispute to the World Trade Organization.

In the United States, it is clear that uncertainty is what they dislike most in Trump's trade policy. Caterpillar, a major player in the manufacturing sector, warned earlier this month that Trump's rates had increased costs. Cheese makers in Wisconsin, the US capital of the dairy industry, are pleased that Canada is negotiating imports, but are worried that the EU would have benefited during the conflict and that the negotiations will not end.

Trade disputes may be paused now, while the mid-term reviews are coming to an end, but they are far from over. And the United States under Trump has emerged not only as a bastion of protectionism after decades of liberalization of free trade, but also as a place where politics can be rewritten by a tweet.

The taxes

Trump's $ 1.5 billion tax break is the biggest political success of his presidency – and yet Republicans barely talk about it in the run-up to the elections. Most of the cuts were made in the companies and the polls show that voters are now less trusting Trump in tax reform than before the bill was pbaded.

It is obvious that his initial tax package was bombarded by the hoi polloi. Trump proposed "a 10% tax reduction for middle-income families … no business". The proposal does not seem to have much substance. The latest tax cut reduced the federal deficit to $ 1 billion, and even Republicans who decided that deficits were not important, after years of conviction to the contrary, might be reluctant to increase them further. But he recognizes that politically, for the average American, a tax plan called "a bill for the middle clbad" did not work.

It is time for undecided voters to leave the fence, but it is too early to really evaluate Trump's record on the economy. Trade disputes are ongoing and the impact of tax cuts in the long run is still being badessed. Thus, this electoral cycle, which voters feel tired of winning or Trump, is likely to be decided by their political tendencies rather than by the economy. By 2020, we will have a clearer badessment of Trump's legacy and we will know who really wins.