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You may have heard a growing number of people vow to reduce their meat intake in recent times – or remove it altogether.
This often fits in the concern of improving health, reducing their impact on the environment or taking into account the welfare of animals.
One-third of Britons say they have stopped eating meat or reduced consumption, while two-thirds of Americans say they eat less than one meat.
This trend is due in part to initiatives such as meatless Mondays and the Veganuary. At the same time, a number of prominent documentaries and advocates of veganism have highlighted the potential benefits of less meat.
But did these feelings have an effect on the ground?
Increase in revenues
What we do know is that global meat consumption has grown rapidly over the past 50 years.
Today, meat production is nearly five times higher than in the early 1960s, from 70 million tonnes to more than 330 tonnes in 2017.
A big reason for this is that there are many more people to feed.
During this period, the world's population has more than doubled. At the beginning of the 1960s, we were about three billion and today, they are more than 7.6 billion.
The population is part of the story, but it does not fully explain why meat production has increased five-fold.
The increase in income is another key factor.
People around the world have grown rich and the average world income has more than tripled in half a century.
When we compare the consumption of different countries, we find that the more rich we are, the more we eat meat.
There are not more people in the world – there are more people who can afford to eat meat.
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We see a clear link with wealth when we look at patterns of meat consumption around the world.
In 2013, the last available year, the United States and Australia dominated the charts in terms of annual meat consumption. Along with New Zealand and Argentina, both countries have exceeded 100 kg per person, or the equivalent of about 50 chickens or half a cow each.
In fact, there is a high consumption of meat in western countries, most Western European countries consuming between 80 and 90 kilograms of meat per person.
In contrast, many of the world's poorest countries consume very little meat.
The average Ethiopian consumes only 7 kg, Rwandans 8 kg and Nigerians 9 kg. It is 10 times less than the average European.
For people in low-income countries, meat is still a luxury.
These figures represent the amount of meat per capita available for consumption, but do not include food wasted at home or in the shops. In fact, people eat a little less meat than that, but that remains a close estimate.
Middle-income countries boost demand for meat
It is clear that the richest countries consume a lot of meat and that those with low incomes eat little.
This is the case for 50 years or more. So why do we collectively eat so much more meat?
This trend has been largely driven by a growing number of middle-income countries.
Fast-growing countries like China and Brazil have experienced significant economic growth in recent decades and a sharp increase in meat consumption.
In Kenya, meat consumption has changed little since 1960.
By contrast, in the 1960s, the average Chinese consumed less than 5 kg per year. By the end of the 1980s, this weight had reached 20 kg and more than three times more than 60 kg in recent decades.
The same thing happened in Brazil, where meat consumption has almost doubled since 1990 – surpbading almost all Western countries.
India is a notable exception.
While average incomes have tripled since 1990, meat consumption has not followed.
According to a national survey, it is wrong to think that the majority of India is vegetarian – two-thirds of Indians eat at least some meat.
Nevertheless, the amount of meat consumed in India has remained low. With less than 4 kg per person, it is the lowest in the world. This is probably due in part to cultural factors for some Indians, including not eating certain types of meat for religious reasons.
Is meat consumption declining in the West?
Many in Europe and North America say they want to reduce their meat consumption, but does it work?
Not really, according to statistics.
Recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) suggests that per capita meat consumption has actually increased in recent years.
While we may think that meat is losing popularity, US consumption in 2018 has been close to its highest level in decades.
The same is true for meat consumption in the EU.
While meat consumption in the West is stable or slightly increasing, the types of meat consumed are changing.
It means less red meat – beef and pork – and more poultry.
In the United States, poultry now accounts for half of all meat consumption, up from a quarter in the 1970s.
These types of substitution could be good news for health and the environment.
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The impact of meat
In some circumstances, eating meat can be beneficial.
Moderate amounts of meat and dairy products can improve the health of the population, especially in low-income countries, where diets sometimes lack variety.
But in many countries, meat consumption far exceeds basic nutritional benefits.
In fact, it could be a health risk. Studies have linked excess consumption of red and processed meat with increased risk of heart disease, stroke and certain types of cancer.
Replacing beef or bacon with chicken could be a positive step.
This exchange is also better for the environment as cows, in particular, are inefficient feed converters in meat.
Compared to chicken, beef has a three to tenfold impact on land use, water emissions and greenhouse gases. Pork is somewhere in between.
A future where meat consumption is sustainable and balanced across countries would require major changes.
This would mean not only a change in the types of meat we eat, but also to what extent.
Essentially, meat should become a luxury again.
About this piece
This badysis article was commissioned by the BBC to an expert working for an outside organization.
Hannah Ritchie is an Oxford Martin Scholar and currently works as a researcher at OurWorldinData.org. It is a joint project between Oxford Martin and Global Change Data Lab, a non-profit organization, which aims to present research on the evolution of the world through interactive visualizations. You can follow her on Twitter right here.
Published by Eleanor Lawrie
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