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North Dakota reported 1,688 active cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, August 24. A year earlier, on August 24, 2020, the state reported 1,541 cases.
But testing for COVID-19 is down from last year, and the rate of positive tests is up to 5.9% in the past two weeks – far higher than the rate of 3.3% on the same date a year earlier. Finding more infection on fewer tests indicates the coronavirus is spreading at a faster rate than it did last year, said Kirby Kruger, director of disease control for the Dakota Department of Health. North.
“We are heading for absolute disaster this fall,” said Dr Stephen McDonough, a retired Bismarck pediatrician and former senior state health official.
A big difference between now and a year ago: 49.2% of those 12 and older have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Additionally, doctors are more experienced in treating COVID-19, and treatments like monoclonal antibodies are more available.
But vaccination rates are much lower for children and young adults than for older adults, and children under 12 are not eligible for vaccination, making these age groups more vulnerable to the disease. the infection.
“This time it will be young people and children,” McDonough said, compared to the elderly, who accounted for most of the hospitalizations and deaths before vaccines were available.
State immunization coordinator Molly Howell notes that about 2% of children who test positive for COVID-19 require hospitalization, and epidemiologists assume that most unvaccinated or previously uninfected children will contract the disease. ‘by the end of the year.
“If you take 2% of that number, that’s a lot of kids,” Howell said. “The risk is that hospitals will be overwhelmed. “
“This virus will gain ground”
McDonough has a tired feeling of déjà vu.
“Here we are again,” he said. “It’s just mind-numbing. It’s just massive denial of COVID again. “
Kirby Kruger, director of the infectious disease division of the North Dakota Department of Health, said more than half of new COVID-19 cases were in people under the age of 50, with more than 60% of new ones cases reported on Monday 23 August.
Young people are not immune to COVID-19 and should be aware that they can develop chronic symptoms of “long COVID”, including fatigue, memory problems, “brain fog” and difficulty breathing, a he declared.
“I am concerned,” said Dr Avish Nagpal, chief infectious disease specialist at Sanford Health in Fargo. “I think we are in worse shape this year despite a pretty good vaccine. “
Given current trends and the currently prevailing highly transmissible delta variant of the coronavirus, North Dakota is expected to experience another major wave of cases similar to what the state suffered last year – and possibly worse, but with fewer hospitalizations and deaths, Nagpal and McDonough mentioned.
“The delta variant changed everything,” McDonough said. “It’s as contagious as chickenpox.”
Kruger said he does not have a crystal ball, but he is “very worried that cases may grow very quickly” as they have over the past two months in the southern United States, too. under-vaccinated.
“I’m looking at Louisiana, I’m looking at Florida and I know I don’t want to be there, but I don’t think we can rule that out,” Kruger said.
“Last summer, what happened in the southern states came straight to us,” McDonough said.
However, since most seniors are vaccinated, there will likely be fewer hospital admissions and deaths during this wave than last year, Kruger, McDonough and Nagpal agreed.
Schools can be expected to face outbreaks of infection, Nagpal and McDonough said.
The fact that COVID-19 cases are comparable to a year ago – and tend to increase – reflects poor adherence to precautions, including wearing masks and maintaining social distancing, Nagpal said and McDonough.
“This virus is going to catch on,” McDonough said. “If you don’t act now, you are going to have children in the hospital, some will be on ventilators and some will die.”
Ideal conditions for spreading
Mike Nowatzki, spokesperson for Governor Doug Burgum, said the state’s top official was not actively considering declaring a new COVID-19 state of emergency, which would allow him to issue far-reaching executive orders and suspend state law. The Republican-held Legislature, which favored a hands-off government approach during the pandemic, created new law earlier this year that would give lawmakers greater ability to overrule the state of emergency declared by Burgum.
Nowatzki said the governor sees widespread immunization as the best response to the state’s COVID-19 problems.
“We are seeing a similar peak to last year, and we know where it ended,” Nowatzki said. “There is a way to prevent this with the vaccine.”
North Dakota lawmakers have also passed a law banning statewide executive-imposed mask mandates, but allow lawmakers to do so.
Fargo was the first city to implement a mask warrant last October, quickly followed by other cities. More than half of the state’s population lived in cities with warrants when North Dakota imposed a state warrant last November.
“What saved us was the mask mandate,” McDonough said, but added that none of those requirements are largely in place now.
“People are fed up,” Nagpal said, referring to resistance to the use of masks and other precautions. “I understand all that. I don’t blame anyone.
But with about half of the population unvaccinated and few masks, the virus has ideal conditions to spread.
To try and keep the pressure on hospitals, healthcare providers can treat high-risk patients with monoclonal antibodies, a treatment Sanford is working to make available in nursing homes, Nagpal said.
Pediatricians are concerned that an increase in hospital admissions of children with COVID-19 may mean children will be treated in non-pediatric units, McDonough said.
Hospitals are already increasing their capacity. North Dakota hospitals were treating 58 patients with COVID-19 on Tuesday, but staffed beds were scarce. In Fargo, Sanford had nine staffed beds on Tuesday and Essentia had seven, according to figures compiled for the state.
The real challenge will begin in the fall, when students return to school and the colder weather keeps people indoors, Nagpal and McDonough said.
“What will happen when we’re inside, the schools reopen, and the universities come back?” McDonough asked.
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