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- New research from the CDC indicates that only a small fraction of Americans who have caught COVID-19 have actually been diagnosed with a coronavirus test.
- There have been 13 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States so far, but the CDC estimates the actual number to be much higher.
- The CDC says as many as 100 million Americans have been infected with the novel coronavirus so far.
The United States reached 13 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Friday morning, but that figure could be significantly lower than the actual number of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the country. Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a study that found only one in eight COVID-19 infections were identified and reported from February to September. The figure improved from a previous estimate of 1 in 10 the CDC previously released. But if this latest data is correct, it helps explain the current skyrocketing numbers as most cases are not confirmed with a proper COVID-19 test.
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CDC researchers estimated that about 52.9 million Americans had been infected in the United States by the end of September. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is only 6.9 million for the period. “This indicates that about 84% of the US population has not yet been infected and therefore most of the country remains at risk, despite already high hospitalization rates,” the researchers wrote.
By extrapolating from the data and assuming the ratio is still valid, NPR concluded that the new estimates that more than 95 million Americans have been infected with the novel coronavirus so far.
Nearly 100 million infections is a frightening number, but what is even more frightening is that around 71% of the population is still not infected and is therefore at risk of contracting the disease. COVID-19 has spread at record speed, with the United States recording new daily records of infections and hospitalizations for most of November. It also means that we are still a long way from approaching collective immunity. To achieve herd immunity against COVID-19, scientists estimate that 70% of the population should be immunized, either against exposure to the pathogen or by getting vaccinated.
A different model said a few days ago suggested that the number of COVID-19 cases in America could double in two months to more than 20 million confirmed cases. If the CDC 8-to-1 ratio still holds, that would mean up to 160 million Americans could be living with the disease by then. Public health experts expect Thanksgiving to fuel another massive spike in the United States, with numbers set to skyrocket again in the coming weeks.
The CDC model makes it clear that many cases of COVID-19 go unreported, especially asymptomatic and mild cases. But the study also pointed out that even hospitalized cases are not always confirmed by a test. Researchers estimated that only 1 in 2.5 hospitalized infections had been officially reported at the end of September.
“These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and health burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and may help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning,” the researchers conclude.
Chris Smith started writing about gadgets as a hobby, and before he even knew it he was sharing his take on tech with readers around the world. Whenever he doesn’t write about gadgets, he miserably fails to walk away from them, although he desperately tries. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
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