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" Never Forgets: This is not a measure, it is a structural, radical, revolutionary, economic program," said Venezuelan Vice President Tareck el Aissami .
However, badyzing the measures together, badysts consulted by Univision Noticias excludes that Venezuela is on the eve of a recovery cycle. "We are far from a program that could put the country on the path of growth," says Alejandro Grisanti, director of the Ecobadítica company. And economist and opposition MP José Guerra is even more adamant: "The government has announced isolated measures that it wants to call a stimulus and economic growth program. contains no objectives or instruments. "
What follows is the key to Maduro's desperate program, based on non-existent cryptocurrency, underground oil reserves and the concealment of key indicators economic.
1. Monetary Reconversion
The price spike is of such magnitude that at this time twenty largest denomination bills are required to pay for a can of soda. Therefore, the first of the measures consists of a currency conversion that will subtract five zeros from the currency and which currently costs 100,000 bolivars will cost a bolivar .
In addition, since August 20, a new monetary cone will begin to circulate, which will have 2, 5, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 bolivars, completed by 1 and 0.50 Bolivarian coins.
Prices will adjust to the same extent, so that there will be no effect on the power of buying money and will mitigate at least temporarily the problem that represents for the computer systems and for the daily transactions of the economy to treat important amounts
But everything indicates that the relief is of short duration . Analysts agree that the main cause of the imbalance that determines prices is that the Central Bank of Venezuela creates large amounts of money to cover a huge gap in the government budget which translates into more resources behind Few products.
Alejandro Grisanti, director of the firm Ecobadítica, explains that "nothing has been announced to resolve the discrepancy generated by hyperinflation, if we use the projection made by the International Monetary Fund that the Inflation could reach a million dollars a year, the five zeros should be removed again in fifteen months, that is, before 2019 is over. "
2. The anchoring of the & rsquo; sovereign bolivar & # 39; to a cryptocurrency
The reconversion will be complemented by the new currency, called sovereign Bolivar, will be anchored in petro cryptocurrency created at the end of last year by the Venezuelan government. Unlike the dollar or the euro that is printed on banknotes and coins, crypto-currencies like petrol are completely digital, they are mobilized on the Internet and to avoid counterfeiting, a system that checks every transfer in a Public accounting book is used. block string called. According to the decree detailing its creation, oil is backed by extra-heavy oil reserves from an oilfield – Field 1 of the Ayacucho Block of the Orinoco Oil Belt –
"The bolivar Sovereign is born steeped in a powerful badet, the petro.This will give it a lot of stability over time, as well as a powerful revaluation of our currency cone, "said Venezuelan Vice President Tareck el Aissami
. Until now, Venezuelan cryptocurrency has not started to be quoted. The purchase of the petroleum is part of the transactions prohibited by the sanctions of the United States and the barrels of oil that support it are underground at a time when the oil production of Venezuela records a decrease of 31%
José Guerra, former director of economic studies of the Central Bank of Venezuela and member of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, states that " anchoring the bolivar in relation to the petroleum is a nonsense ] one currency is set relative to another to gain the stability of the one that serves as the anchor point, which is why many countries anchor their currencies against the dollar or the euro.The petro is not a currency, is not traded internationally and can not anchor the value of bolivar based on an invisible currency nonexistent. "
Alejandro Grisanti says that "petro does not exist, there is none of Final call for petros and C is what makes me think that it will never exist. Therefore, an anchor against something that does not exist is a bolivar that will continue to drift. "
3. The reserves" buried "
The exchange reservoir available to the Central Bank of Venezuela to pay for imports and foreign debt undergoes a sharp reduction that increases the fragility of the and the public figures suggest that over the last ten weeks international reserves accumulated a 15% drop to settle in the end of July 25, at $ 8,813 million.
In Venezuela 96 of the $ 100 that enter the country comes from oil exports and the current level of international reserves is lower than that recorded during the strike that paralyzed the oil industry between December 2002 and March 2003. In addition, is the lowest amount of the last 21 years and comes at a time when the country is heavily dependent on imports to meet basic needs such as food and medicine.
In an attempt to strengthen international reserves, Nicolás Maduro announced that part of the stabilization program that the Central Bank will receive "a full block of certified oil reserves, it is the Ayacucho-II block, Ayacucho Area of the Belt. to Orinoco oil made up of 29 298 million barrels of oil certified. "
As with petro, it is the oil that has not been extracted, so at this rate it will not immediately translate into more dollars to import. However, the central bank could issue bonds backed by this oil, although the possibility of finding buyers willing to take the risk seems complicated.
Luis Vicente León, director of Datanálisis, said in his Twitter account that "l oil guarantees are irrelevant without the agents to whom this guarantee protects not having the possibility to take them in case of non-compliance. respect A subsoil oil, without titles and controlled by the same government that might not comply … is a zero on the left. "
The precariousness of international reserves translates into a sharp reduction in imports and in the shortage of a wide variety of products such as food, medicine, textiles, spare parts for automobiles and also raw materials and inputs that companies must produce.
The Academy of Economics points out what happened in the second quarter of this year that "the strangulation of the economy is evident in the contraction of imports, which which has aggravated the shortage of raw materials and intermediate and final consumer goods ".
The Venezuelan government hides the official statistics but a study prepared by Torino Capital takes into account the figures provided by 30 countries and determines that in the first Three months of this year, imports totaled 2,730 million dollars, a magnitude that represents a 75% decrease over the same period of 2012.
4. Relaxing Control Changes
Measures include the sending to the National Constituent Assembly of a bill that, if approved, would make exchange control that prevails in Venezuela since 2003 more flexible, allowing the private sector to buy and
Alejandro Grisanti states: "I think the idea is to legalize a parallel currency market that would include foreign oil companies that operate in the country and could inject some supply. I understand that one of the conditions that China has asked to grant financing is to make the foreign exchange market more flexible. "
She adds that" this could give liquidity in this foreign exchange market, but nothing is wrong, which is fiscal, inflation will continue and the currency stability will last a few weeks. "
5. To stimulate investment, the government announced that it would eliminate for one year the payment of taxes and tariffs to those who import raw materials, inputs and equipment goods that could
Although businessmen consulted indicate that it is a step in the right direction, they warn that, without ending price controls that require production at a loss, it will be difficult to exonerate the tax translates into a significant jump in the import of machinery and equipment
photos: To survive in Colombia, these Venezuelans turned their devalued bills into crafts
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