Mexico at the greatest election of its history

In its nearly two centuries of independent history, Mexico has never experienced elections as large as Sunday, when the 89 million eligible voters go to the polls to choose 3,400 public officials, including the next President of the Republic.

The elections are strongly marked by violence: 133 politicians were killed in the pre-vote, 48 of them candidates and majority aspirants or local officials, according to the risk consultation Etellekt.

But they are also special for other reasons. In the era of Donald Trump, whose anti-immigration rhetoric and trade protectionism has inflamed Mexicans, the country's relations with the United States are also at the forefront of Mexican concerns.

To this is added the crisis of trust suffer from traditional festivals. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the current president, Enrique Peña Nieto, is affected by corruption scandals that include payments to the British consulting firm Cambridge Analytica and links with the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht. Latin America and the world. His rival, the National Action Party (PAN), fails in polls and is the subject of an investigation for improper funding.

In this context, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 64, former mayor of Mexico City, sees the opportunity to take the presidency on his third attempt to conquer it. The latest polls place him with more than 50% support, more than enough in a country that does not have a ballot. Mexico, the second largest Latin American economy and second most populous country in the region, seems ready to turn to the unknown

The agenda of AMLO

"J & # "I have a legitimate ambition: I want to be a good president of Mexico," AMLO said Wednesday, in a mbadive act with which it closed its campaign to Estadio Azteca, the country's main arena.

The possibility that one's ambition could be realized, however, scares investors, who mistrust an agenda that includes reviewing concessions and government procurement, in addition to an increase in social spending and minimum wage without raise taxes. It could also be more confrontational with the United States at a time when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada is renegotiated.

Although a possible victory of AMLO has already been incorporated into the markets, a strong presence in the legislative branch of its coalition Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Brunette) could "bring down the peso and trigger more of monetary policy adjustments, "said a report yesterday from the Capital Economics research firm

. he will become the populist demagogue that he seemed to represent at the beginning of the campaign or the moderate centrist he has shown in recent months, "says the report." The reality will probably be somewhere in the middle. "[19659005] Polls predict that Morena would be slightly below a legislative majority and the future president could build a coalition.A better result than this one could surprise the markets

Deception and bend

But the l 39; AMLO's likely arrival is also due to Peña Nieto's inability to keep his promises of fighting corruption and fighting corruption, drug trafficking that took him to the National Palace.

The head of state prepares to leave office after six years of popularity from 60% to 12%, the lowest for a Mexican president in office

The letter of continuity, former secretary to The Economy of Peña Nieto, José Antonio Meade, scores a little over 20% in the polls and does not convince the PRI the most fiercely because he is a non-militant technocrat of charisma. At the end of the campaign, he seemed to appeal to the "useful vote" of those who do not trust the agenda of AMLO.

These voters will challenge them with the PAN candidate, Ricardo Anaya, who has a more political profile but arrives on Sunday. also discredited. He is accused of having participated in a money laundering program and is the subject of an investigation by the Attorney General. He denies the accusations and blames the PRI government. But while both sides point fingers, the country seems ready to take a historic turn to the hard left.