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Time played him a trick not only to agro but also over the country. This is how the Bolsa de Cereals of Buenos Aires (Bcba) estimated the impact of sequa in the Argentine economy, given the new production situation and prices and with the objective to show the adverse effects of the climate scenario on value added, exports and tax collection of agricultural value chains in 2018.
At this In this regard, they pointed out that the economic losses have almost doubled according to the previous badysis published in March, reaching in this update $ 5,895 million in added value since the climatic conditions continued to rise. deteriorate. In this sense, they argued that "this is not only explained by the decrease in the estimate of soybean production and its impact on milling, but also by the Experience of international citations since the previous publication. , which decreased the compensation goes price ".
In summary and according to Panorama Agrcola Sembad (PAS), maize production for the 2017/18 season is estimated at 32 million tonnes and that from soybean to 36 million tonnes, representing reductions of 22% and 33% compared to expectations at the beginning of the agricultural cycle.
Therefore, Bolsa portea pointed out that "in this campaign gross product of soybean chains ] and maz be 23% below the level that could have been reached in the absence of climatic inclemency. "
Impact spill In terms of the economy as a whole, the loss is estimated at 0,% of Argentine GDP.However, it should be noted that when badyzing what is happening at the Within each of the chains, it can be seen that the losses are not distributed equitably between the links, and for Bcba, primary production continues to be the main one, with an added value of US $ 2,331 million each.
Related services are also affected, highlighting the loss of US $ 422 million in transport, and they indicated that "the negative impacts of the dry season also reached the producers of meat and milk using corn and flour as an input and will face higher costs "order of $ 1,000 million." In this context, Bolsa pointed out that "the frequency and magnitude of the impact of adverse weather events in such an important sector for the Argentine economy, underline the need to design and implement a comprehensive strategy for risk management ". According to Bcba's calculations, the export losses will reach US $ 5,374 million, due to the decrease in the quantities exported. grains and their by-products, partially offset by the increase in international prices .
In turn, the perception of the tax will also suffer a reduction of $ 1,735 million "is due to a decrease in the product of export duties to the suite of miners exports and one each in the collection goes for other taxes due to the decrease From the Bcba, they specified that this badysis only takes into account the direct effects of the reduction of production on the agroindustrial sector, whose final macroeconomic impact will be considerably greater if the interactions with the rest of the sectors of the economy.
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