To what extent did Trump influence AMLO's success in Mexico and how can we understand them now?

Donald Trump had only 10 days as President of the United States in January 2017, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced a tour of the country to "defend the migrants".

During his trip to various US cities, the Mexican candidate at the time accused Trump and his advisers of talking about Mexicans "like Hitler and the Nazis were referring to the Jews" and supporting "a hate campaign". who is neo-fascist. "

He later published a book on this trip, titled Hey, Trump and said that he decided to confront the US government while the Mexican president, Enrique Peña Nieto, was silent

All of this generated controversy and suspicion that López Obrador sought to use the high rejection that Trump generates among Mexicans to obtain votes for himself, something that was not enough. he denied.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1013618640061595648

---

" Felici taciones to Andrés Manuel López Obrador to become the next p ] resident of Mexico, I am looking forward to working with him, there is much to do in 1965 and 1965 Mexico

---

And as the candidate known by his initials AMLO has gained a foothold in the countryside, many have tied his popular support to what Trump made on the other side of the border.

"With his attacks and insults to Mexicans, Trump favored López Obrador, with great irresponsibility, because the United States will have problems with a "The populist government and the demagogue," wrote the Peruvian writer and Nobel Prize Literature 2010 Mario Vargas Llosa last month

Thus, after the election of López Obrador to the presidency of Mexico, these questions arise: did he really contribute to his triumph? For the time being, on Sunday evening, Donald Trump congratulated on his Twitter account the elected president of the Mexicans

Differences and similarities

Luis Rubio, President of the Mexican Council He stresses that Trump had an indirect effect on the Mexican elections.

"Many Mexicans are angry with the Mexican s (Trump) insults without a government in Mexico explaining, reacting or doing anything understandable. for the common voter, "says Rubio to the BBC Mundo.

" There is a degree of this element in this election, "he adds.

Controversy over the treatment of incoming migrants in the United States, Mexico – mainly Central American – has increased in recent weeks, due to Trump's "zero tolerance" policy that forced the separation of nearly 3,000 children from their parents.

But Trump has avoided direct participation in Mexican elections and other experts are rejecting this migration or other related American issues.They will add votes to López Obrador.

"Trump did not do the purpose of this campaign in Mexico, "says Jorge Buendía, director of the polling firm Buendía & Laredo, at the BBC Mundo." I do not think it has had an impact. "

He explains that all the candidates gave their critical opinion on Trump, which is very unpopular In Mexico, about eight out of ten voters have a negative opinion of him.

Before a reaction against Trump, many believe that the election of López Obrador was a sign of Mexicans' annoyance to local problems such as corruption or violence, which he promised to give priority.

Like Trump, AMLO was seen by his constituents as the best option to change a political system that disillusioned them: he spoke of "draining the swamp" of Washington, the latter to bring out the "corrupt regime" of Mexico. 19659002] And their similarities do not stop there, although the American is considered fair and the Mexican left.

Both were described as populists or nationalists and are considered by their detractors to be more risky for liberal democracy or the market economy.

Both prefer to focus more on national politics than on external relations, which is not their specialty.

And now both are forced to lead the relationship between their countries, either to agree or face each other.

"A nightmare"?

Some badysts believe that López Obrador and Trump will have difficulty understanding each other because of their personal styles and everything that separates them, but others think otherwise.

"I think that for strange reasons, they will find a way to work effectively," predicts Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican diplomat based in Washington.

"Trump wrongly identifies in Lopez Obrador the same phenomenon that brought him to power, who appealed to populism, who is an authoritarian leader, of the line that he loves," Guajardo told the BBC Mundo.

A hot topic in the bilateral agenda is the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between its countries and Canada, ordered by Trump after his arrival at the White House .

Before the Mexican Elections López Obrador's team aligned with the Peña Nieto government's negotiating position on the FTA and appointed a representative to participate in the discussions.

"Even if there is no agreement before the end of the transition (presidential in Mexico), there should be continuity in the negotiation process," Pamela says. Starr, professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, expert in Mexican-American relations, and Mexico

Starr warns that problems can arise in issues such as migration, since López Obrador said he will look after the human rights of Mexicans living in the United States, without papers and Central Americans crossing Mexico to the north.