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On June 12, Trump and Kim Jong-un met in Singapore. Before the meeting, for a year and a half, North Korea had been testing missiles capable of attacking the United States. Trump, who replied with his tweets that "Kim is a dwarf"; "Human Rocket"; "I also have a nuclear arsenal, but bigger and it works …", the warriors of the cold war saw another missile crisis approach, like that of Cuba. Conservative hawks like John Bolton (former UN ambbadador with George Bush and Fox commentator) urged Trump to take all necessary measures against North Korea.
However, Kim's selfies on Singapore's waking night, with handsome young Americans and Trump's compliments praising him as "a great leader who runs a great nation" has changed everything: Trump and Kim have agreed that , with few conditions and concrete, North Korea would be denuclearized.
The world breathed a sigh of relief and the cycle resumed: Trump is tightening the nuts in Iran with more sanctions; the trade war intensifies: from Trump with the G7, China and the European Union: 250,000 million tariffs on Chinese imports; more import duties for European cars; stock markets, which have experienced a decade of "irrational exuberance" (in the words of Robert Schiller, Nobel economics), suffer; oil is at a crossroads: Saudi Arabia wants to increase production, not Iran, Russia and Venezuela. The price goes up and down. The IMF and the World Bank warn that trade wars can fuel a negative change in the economic cycle: few are paying attention because the World Cup begins.
John Bolton is appointed by Trump National Security Advisor. And from his mouth come the magic words that explain why in an hour and a half Trump gets Kim, the leader who kills his people from hunger and spends the budget of national defense, denuclearizing his country: "The United States will lend immediate economic aid and investment in North Korea if denuclearized, "said Bolton. North Korea's chief economic adviser, Kim Yong Cho, takes over the peace pipe of Bolton replies: "It would be great if the United States helped us develop tourism and the real estate market in exchange for denuclearization. "Real estate and tourism are the specialty of Trump, who came out of the meeting with Kim stating," The beaches of North Korea are incredible. Can you imagine them filled with apartments? "
North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world. However, major North American investors see a world of opportunity to gain from it. 39, money. "It's a paradise," say these investors, all based in Singapore and South Korea.What country can be paradise if its population dies of hunger?
For example, one who has untapped raw materials worth seven trillion dollars: zinc, magnesium, gold, copper, bronze, steel … hundreds of mines scattered all over the country Also the one that has, according to OPEC, the sixth reserves of oil in the world, oil, still intact and, of course, tourism and construction and real estate development, not to mention the need to develop infrastructure (roads, trains, aircraft, airports, etc.). world of light and color that for decades has been studying and badyzing the United States, China, South Korea and Japan.
Information technology (satellites, for example) allowed the Americans to identify each of the mines and the mineral they contain, as well as the ore deposits of oil. According to the US Treasury Secretary, the United States could already invest one trillion dollars. Xi Jinping went further, as if it was California's gold race in the late nineteenth century: "We can invest in factories in North Korea, currently, a trillion and a half of dollars." China, like South Korea, wants to invest in factories because the North Korean labor force is even cheaper than China's. And he knows that North Koreans look forward to this investment: on the one hand, they are starving and, on the other hand, they know that in the West, life is much better. but much more expensive. Kim Jong-un was educated in Switzerland; North Koreans have families in the South and, with what they can know through the media, they understand that they are westernized or that they are all starving.
We do not talk about democracy. North Korea is, economically, today, similar to China when Mao died. His successor, Deng Xiaoping, opted for state capitalism and the ideological control of iron communism. For this, it takes a great army and good information technology: the Chinese have spent decades spying on and copying the West. North Korea has one of the best cellular telecommunications networks in the world and an army of hackers that threaten the cybersecurity of the West. China is open to foreign investment by imposing its rules: development of the technology industry, turning the country into a big cheap factory. And Silicon Valley (already hacked by Chinese and North Koreans) took production in China.
They also have the example of Vietnam: in 1974, South Vietnam was one of the richest countries in the world. decades The north was very poor and wanted to impose, after the war, its communist vision in the south. In a few years, the new reunified Vietnam was bankrupt. Until 1982, Deng Xiaoping encouraged the Vietnamese to follow his example. Today, Vietnam is a leading tourist destination, capitalist in the economy, ideologically communist.
North Korea easily followed the Chinese and Vietnamese examples: in 2017 foreign investment in the country was $ 96 million. Today, the United States and China have put on the table 1 and 1.5 billion, respectively. Does someone give more?
Jorge Díaz Cardiel is a managing partner of Advice Strategic Consultants. Author of "Hillary vs." Trump & # 39; and & # 39; Trump, first year & # 39;
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