[ad_1]
Washington – Voters can build a wall today against the harsher policies of the government Donald Trump if the elections were correct and the parliamentary elections granted Democrats control the House of Representatives .
Despite the steady progress of the economy, Democrats are the favorites to win the majority in the House.
For an electoral motive that favors them, however, it is expected that Republicans will retain the majority of the Senate and may even win a few more seats.
Analysts of the group FiveThirtyEight – who studies polling trends – said that there should be "a systematic error" in the opinion studies, so that the situation is different .
The warning recalls the failures that prevented Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election.
And the reality is that polls of more than 30 seats out of 435 in the House show that even if the intention to vote favors the Democrats, the margin of difference does not allow to project a concrete result.
The polls clearly set out certain issues that define trust or mistrust in major American parties prior to this election, which is in many ways seen as a referendum on Trump.
"Although I'm not on the ballot, I'm sort of," Trump said yesterday at a campaign event in Cleveland. "The press considers that it is a referendum on me and on us, a movement."
For example, 15% of voters believe more than Republicans run the economy. But 18% prefer Democrats in health and federal measures to provide medical services to their citizens.
Traditionally, the White House tenant party loses its seats in the elections.
In the first mid-term elections chaired by Barack Obama in 2010, the Democrats lost 63 seats in the lower house.
But these elections have the peculiarity of they are developing at a time when the economy has improved under the Trump government, which has followed the growth recorded under the Obama administration.
For example, the unemployment rate has been reduced in the last 20 months by 1%, down to 3.7%, the lowest percentage since 1969. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq form recorded respective increases of 25% and 29%, according to an badysis of the Birlin company. g Capital Advisors, with an office in San Juan
However, it is quite possible that Republicans will lose control of the lower house. And polls agree that most Americans disapprove of Trump's work.
"This is a dichotomy," said Francisco Rodriguez Castro, president of Birling Capital Advisors, who believes it is a good explanation of the political damage he is facing. Trump – with a 44% approval rate – is the way he manages his Twitter account.
In recent days, as Democrats are using to protect the benefits of federal health reform, Trump and the most conservative Republicans have resorted to a campaign of fear of the government. ;immigration.
Voters believe that the election will be decisive if the electorate wants to limit Trump's more conservative ideas, such as building a "wall" largely. the border with Mexico, the revision of the right to citizenship of birth for the children of foreigners, limits the progress of the homobadual population, the imposition of international commercial rates and their public expenditure when debt increased by 8.19%
At one of Florida's campaign closings, former President Obama alluded, without naming, to social intolerance was unearthed by the Trump government.
"An election is not going to eliminate racism, badism or homophobia, but it would be a start," he said.
Republicans have a slight attitude right now. Senate majority, 51 to 49.
If vacancies are not taken into account, Republicans have control of 240 of the 435 seats in the House.
For this reason, Democrats must increase by more than At least 23 seats in the House of Representatives, to reach the minimum of 218 which defines the majority.
Although the outlook is unfavorable for Democrats in the Senate, 26 of the 35 seats decided today are: Democrats and 10 more Agreements are taking place in the states that Trump won in 2016 and closed battles of the House take place almost entirely in the Republican districts.
"A democratic victory in the House would undoubtedly stop important aspects of the President's national and international agenda." The reconquest of the House would give Democrats control over public spending. would now depend on the criteria of the Democratic leaders to fund the wall at the Mexican border, for the use of the Army in the Middle East, for the implementation of its grandiose infrastructure plan of more than 1 trillion dollars and for all matters relating to fiscal, commercial and monetary policy, " Rafael Cox Alomar Professor of Law at the University of the District of Columbia .
Jerry Weller Former Illinois Republican Congressman, Believes that a Democrat Victory in the House and Maintaining a Weak Republican Majority in the Senate Can Create "a legislative stalemate ".
According to this scenario, Weller thinks that both parties will focus "simply on legislation that carries a message for the 2020 presidential election."
Weller said that under the leadership of Nancy Pelosi, who plans to As a next speaker of a Democratic Congress, Democrats will now be able to reach a consensus agreement on the remaining federal allowances and agricultural law, or trying to leave the debate for the start of the new session, which will begin in January.
Weller He argued that Pelosi should also decide how to deal with the Democratic sector that wants to impel a process of impeachment against President Trump.
"After following this process with President Clinton in the 1990s, I remember how much it hindered the realization of other priorities and divided the country.I hope that the President and the Democrats will be able to reach bipartite agreements because we all know that progress is better for the country than division, "added Weller.
Democrats insisted that a majority in Congress makes the Trump administration more forceful on issues such as Russia's efforts to influence the elections and the federal government's response to the 39th emergency that triggered Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rican Affairs ]
Regarding Puerto Rico, Cox Alomar thinks he should be waiting for the renewal, in the summer of 2019, of the Budget Supervisory Board (JSF) which controls the public finances of the island.
If the seven seats are renewed, the Democrats should dominate the Senate and the House of Representatives to be able to nominate four of the seven members of the JSF.
Be that as it may, Cox Alomar hopes to open the door "to new Council members with a more coherent and balanced vision of the complex relationship between austerity and economic development. "
. And it does not rule out that, by the Democratic majority, through the eventual next president of the Committee of Natural Resources of the Lower House, Congressman Raúl Grijalva and Puerto Rican Nydia Velázquez will resurface for a new debate giving a broad look at the political future of Puerto Rico.
of the Hospital Association of Puerto Rico – thinks that the island's tax issues might have the ear of who would be the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee representatives with a democratic majority, Richard Neal (Mbadachusetts).
"He has a large Puerto Rican population in his district.He told me that he wanted to be useful for Puerto Rico.That opens the possibility of a tax transaction for Puerto Rico , as part of any package of legislation aimed at correcting the tax reform of the republic, "said Weller.
Puerto Rican and Hispanic groups demanded that Congress improve access to this badembly at the next session. In the Medicaid program, give residents of Puerto Rico full access to the accumulated income credit (EITC) and the child credit (CTC).
Rosanna Torres, director of the Washington Center for a Nueva Economia (CNE) office, said the next Congress should follow the reconstruction of Puerto Rico.
El Nuevo Día estimates indicate that the federal government has allocated about $ 42 billion in federal funds to mitigate the disaster caused by Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. But "the Puerto Rican government has calculated that the total damage reaches 139,000 million dollars, which indicates," said Torres, that "there is still a lot of work to be done".
He is also considering the possibility of an agreement to fund an infrastructure plan.
But even with favorable results for Democrats, with a White House tenant who questioned the island's badignments and who distrusts his government's authorities, the Puerto Rico priority program will require bipartisan support.
[ad_2]
Source link
