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Although most polls predict a 4% growth for this year, JPMorgan's latest report departs from the market consensus as it expects only 3.8% growth . Meanwhile, by 2019, activity is expected to increase by 3.5% and 3% in 2020.
These figures are compared to the latest projection of the consensus forecast of LatinFocus which 4% for 2018; while for next year, it stands at 3.4% and 3% by 2020.
Despite this adjustment of the prospects for expansion, the country will continue to develop more than the world, since it forecasts growth to 2018 3 3%; 3% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020, with an average return of 3.0% between 2018 and 2020, compared with 3.4% on average for Chile.
Compared to Latin America, the country's performance is also superior. . Indeed, JPMorgan expects an expansion of 1.2% by 2018; 1.8% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020, registering an average increase of 1.8%, against 3.4% in Chile.
According to the report, the global outlook for 2019 is built around four tensions: the strength of the United States compared to the slowness of the rest of the world, macroeconomic policy is consistent with political tensions, the benefits businesses against modest growth in capital spending and rising wage inflation.
Regarding the monetary policy of the world's major banks, it is specified that central banks will propose more adjustments than current markets contemplate, with four other increases in the Federal Reserve. For the ECB and the Bank of Japan, the upward trend in core inflation will ultimately be to demand the start of rate normalization.
Regarding the risks, JP Morgan notes that the global outlook for 2019 is skewed weak considering the many geopolitical threats, the euro zone that has not yet recovered and China that leaves that foreshadow a stabilization. One of the main concerns is the recent downturn in the global business climate, which increases the risk that geopolitical effects outweigh the fundamentals. Despite the risks, the report indicates that a recession for 2019 is unlikely.
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