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As expected, EE. UU imposed duties on imports of 34,000 million US dollars from China yesterday; and Beijing responded by imposing equivalent tariffs as the growing trade war between the two largest economies continues to develop. If we add to this the tariffs and tariffs in Atlantic and North America, the value of the trade covered by the economic wars that President Donald Trump initiated will reach 100 000 million US dollars this weekend. But that's just the beginning.
(Read: Russia also enters a trade war with the United States)
Soon, Trump's trade wars could easily exceed 1 trillion US dollars. It is likely to have economic consequences for the United States and the world. This would equate to a quarter or more of the total trade of US $ 3.9 billion with the rest of the world last year and cover at least 6% of world merchandise trade (with a value of 17.5%). billion US dollars in 2017, according to the World Trade Organization.)
(Read: "The United States initiates the largest trade war in history", China)
[19459004Therearethreereasonstothinkthata$1trilliontradewarisnotentirelyimprobable:
(Read: Colombia's Opportunities in the US Trade War – China)
Trump-China
Trump Wars China will soon reach 600,000 million dollars. China's US $ 34 billion worth of imports Trump has been subject to tariffs are roughly equivalent to one month of imports from China. E In this section, a tax of 25% is applied to 818 products ranging from water boilers and towers to industrial robots and electric cars. In return, Beijing is starting to apply a similar tariff on a list including soy, seafood and crude oil.
Both countries have already published lists of additional products that would bring total trade to $ 50,000 million. each side. However, outraged by the retaliation, Trump ordered that an additional US $ 20 trillion in additional duties be applied on imports from China and threatened with an additional $ 200 trillion. Given this, Beijing has promised its own answer.
Thus, it would reach 450,000 million US dollars, while the country's imports of Chinese products last year reached 505,500 million US dollars and US exports. UU China reached a record of 129.9 billion US dollars. It does not seem alarmist to say that we would be only a few months away from the majority or the total amount of the 635,400 million US dollars affected by the new tariffs.
Car Wars
Trump's car wars could reach more than $ 600,000 million. In a television interview, the President of the United States described his plan to impose tariffs on imported automobiles and parts in the name of US national security as "the most important" among its commercial earthquakes. And without a doubt, they see it in the EU and elsewhere.
According to official data, EE. UU imported US $ 191,700 million worth of cars and trucks in 2017 and US $ 143,100 million worth of spare parts for US $ 334,800 million.
An investigation is underway to determine whether imports of foreign vehicles pose a threat to national security. United States UU And, while it's easy to make fun of the idea that a BMW or a Toyota could endanger the safety of any nation, the ## 147 ## The Trump administration made it clear that it considered defending its manufacturing industry as a national security priority. . The same rationale was used to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum earlier this year.
As he did with the tariffs on metals, Donald Trump seems to believe that auto tariffs will influence him on the European Union and Japan in the upcoming trade negotiations as well as Canada and Mexico in the ongoing NAFTA negotiations.
Trump pushes to force this capitulation. For this reason alone, the idea that EE. UU could impose 20% tariffs on all or part of these imports should not be dismissed as a crazy notion. And it is likely that any American fare. UU will face retaliation from those affected.
In the extreme scenario, involving tariffs, more than US $ 650,000 million would be covered in world trade, with consequences for businesses around the world.
NAFTA
He is often lost in the global conversation that EE. UU it is trading more with Canada and Mexico ($ 1.1 trillion) than with China, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom combined.
After criticizing the "catastrophe" he sees in the current version of NAFTA, Trump is trying to renegotiate it while Mexico has elected a new president, which can further complicate the process. Canada and Mexico resisted US UU demands to add new elements, such as a clause that would expire the pact every five years.
But EE. UU He has injected more uncertainty into the talks with his decision to subject Canada and Mexico to steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as to the auto threat.
US imports of auto and spare parts from its NAFTA partners – most of the imports came from US auto factories themselves – were worth more than 158 , US $ 3 billion in 2017. Canada and Mexico reached US $ 87,800 million.
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