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In order to obtain rights to operate and develop the Starbucks brand in the Netherlands, France, Belgium and Luxembourg, Alsea's consolidated turnover and operating cash flow (EBITDA) would increase 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively, according to stock market badysts.
] In addition, they projected that the Mexican restaurant operator would pay between 2,500 and 3,100 million pesos for the acquisition of the operations of 262 units, of which 80 belong to Starbucks. Valentín Mendoza, an badyst at Banorte, explained that, to finance the operation, Alsea would badume a new debt, with which its leverage level would increase by 2.1 times today with a net debt / EBITDA ratio. Until the middle of the year, she owed 16,256 million pesos.
Verónica Uribe, an badyst at Monex, also accepts that the station incurs additional debt in euros to make the payment. however, "as the acquisition consolidates, the level of net debt / Ebitda is expected to fall to 2.37 times, disregarding synergies and potential margin improvements."
Mendoza foresaw that negotiations could be closed before the end of this period. And estimated that the purchase would increase the issuer's consolidated sales by about 3.8 percent, compared to the 2019 estimates, by 50,869 million pesos, and that EBITDA would increase by 3.5 percent over forecasts of 7,332 million pesos for this period. [19659005] Monetary Diversification
Specialists agreed that the operator of other restaurants such as Vips would also diversify its revenues into other currencies and expand into new territories.
"This would represent a new geographical expansion for Alsea in countries where it does not currently exist." It has already demonstrated its ability to improve margins in newly acquired territories, for example in Spain, which would improve profitability of the region, "said Barclays.
Although, since 2014, Alsea began operating in Spain, it acquired Grupo Zena, which represents 21% of the turnover, would constitute its first entry into the European market with the Starbucks brand.
The strategic alliance between the international coffee chain and Alsea began 16 years ago, when they partnered to open the first store in Mexico City. In June of this year, the Mexican company operated 962 Starbucks in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay. This first country inaugurated the first unit last April.
In order to reach a good agreement, the restaurant-cafe division in Alsea would increase by 27% and all its business units by 7.5%, ie 3,521 establishments.
Erick Medina, an badyst at Intercam Casa de Bolsa, explained that the cafeteria sector currently accounts for 23% of the station's revenue and one with the highest growth rate of recent years.
Although in Latin America, the brand is ambitious and the market has potential for expansion, in Europe it is already more consolidated, but the competition is more intense. For example, the Starbucks penetration rate in the region is only 2.7 stores per million population, much lower than countries such as Canada at 40.9; Credit Suisse: United Kingdom, with 14.6 points, and Mexico, with 5.6 points.
Verónica Uribe pointed out that "the finalization of the transaction would increase Alsea's presence with the Starbucks brand in nine countries and generate approximately 3.3% and 2.7% more revenues and overall operational flows. "
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