[ad_1]
The first signs after his historic election show a prudent Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), more thrown into the center, before taking the reins of Mexico on December 1, when the end of the term ends. Enrique Peña Nieto.
Far from the populist tribune that held Hugo Chávez and that Evo Morales still repeats, and closer to the "vegetarian left" (social-democratic) of Lula da Silva, the elected president of Mexico said that "the priority will be to the poor," but joined the ultra-conservative Donald Trump to reach an agreement for migrants and the FTA, agreed with businessmen to revive the Mexican economy and spoke of "reconciliation" rather than revenge to solve the serious crisis of the state. Second most important country in Latin America after Brazil
Businessmen have already raised the idea of modernization of the country and the need to "enter a context of new technologies and a global world.
The Shock of the Populists
López Obrador and Donald Trump promised to shake the political elite and give priority to their country. Will the populism of the left Andrés Manuel López Obrador, elected president of Mexico, collide with that of the right-wing president of the United States, Donald Trump? Or will it be an opportunity for redemption for the countries?
López Obrador's overwhelming triumph on Sunday, with more than 52.9% of the vote, presupposes a break with the Mexican political system and opens a question mark on the crucial link with the northern neighbor, his main business partner and the home of 12 million Mexicans.
After months of tumultuous bilateral relations – with Trump insisting on building a border wall and maintaining a firm stance on issues of immigration, trade and security, and AMLO, as all of world calls the Mexican politician, their place "-, both have indicated in the last hours their intention to develop a good relationship.
Trump's national security adviser, the 'falcon & # 39; John Bolton, even said that his boss is expecting to "anxious" a meeting with AMLO and that it can be very productive.
More Lula than Chavez
AMLO, 64, arrives to the presidency in his third attempt and with a program of "radical change", but his leadership should be more moderate than his inflamed rhetoric
"He will rule more like Lula da Silva in Brazil than Hugo Chávez in Venezuela", said the economist and politolog Mark Rosenberg, GeoQuant consulting firm
Jason Marczak, Director of the Atlantic Council Center for Latin America "(19459006)" Would you like to implement social reforms in a pragmatic way, like Lula? Yes, in this sense, I believe that AMLO will follow this path, he, like Lula, is also seen by his disciples as a savior, but the economic context in which AMLO comes to power is very different from the one that Lula inherited. "
Marczak insisted that" AMLO is not the Mexican version of Trump "and that he won by the satiety of people with corruption, impunity and the violence, not by the American president's outbursts of anger at everything south of the Rio Grande. "Washington can and must take this moment to recalibrate relations with Mexico," he said.
Almas twins
Although having a different past, AMLO, former mayor of Mexico City, has much in common with Trump, "Both are nationalists who feel redemptive who must fight a corrupt and ineffective establishment and put the agenda of their country first, which can make Trump see AMLO as a soul mate and generates "They are populist and populists need enemies to survive politically, and AMLO is likely to find this outside enemy in Trump, "said Juan Carlos Hidalgo, of the Cato Institute
. a point. "At the same time, AMLO seems to understand that there is little to gain in a fight with the United States," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue Center.
NAFTA and Protectionism
"AMLO said it wants to maintain NAFTA and cooperation on security issues, the most sensitive and volatile issue being immigration, which could increase tensions ". 19659002] The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), in force between the United States, Mexico and Canada since 1994, has been renegotiated since August at the request of Trump, which considers it prejudicial to American interests. For Rosenberg, reciprocal protectionist motivations can make talks to renew NAFTA more difficult.
Hidalgo agreed: "It is likely that AMLO's campaign promises, such as the search for food self-sufficiency, further complicate renegotiation." "AMLO will not hesitate to put pressure on the United States," says Marczak
Social Protection Policies
"For the good of all, first the poor ", said López Obrador. the coherence with the ideas of social equality defended during its 18 years of political struggle by the presidency, but also clashes with part of the electorate who is wary of the viability of a policy Social
Salvador Mora, a political scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), believes that this type of ideas is what rejects some of the most conservative electorate, who fears the ideas of the new president.
According to Mora, the disappointed voter of the result reacts "individualist manner", appealing to his own work to raise the country – as they have indicated many users in the networks – "feel defeated ". In addition, they see that the future president does not include them in his country proposal, which they doubt because he "does not have a good diagnosis or a good answer to the problem."
López Obrador is clear that it is essential to change some things in the According to the latest report of the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy, 43.6% of Mexicans have adopted a model to improve the living conditions of the poor.
Among the proposals to help the most deprived that "the poor first" focuses on the income of seniors and scholarships to high school students and academics who need it the most.
For its part. Miguel Ángel Quemain, professor of literature at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), points out that business clbad members are the main dissatisfied with the AMLO speech
. Other socio-cultural reasons also reject the leftist ideology of the leader.
Declaring that the most disadvantaged are the first, López Obrador refers to the failings of the current economic system of Mexico, eminently neoliberal and ensuring the welfare of a few elites, including said Quemain
"The poor imply Firstly a policy of environmental protection, salary protection, health protection, guarantee of C is very scary for a sector that has always had the opportunity to d & # 39; 39; be in the most privileged order, "says the Mexican expert.
First Seven Economic Measures
1. Increase in the Minimum Wage
The proposal is to increase it by 15.6% each year, at the end of the badennium reach 171 pesos a day, plus the inflation that was generated in the period.
2. Retired and young
Offers a universal pension for all the elderly, 1,500 pesos a month. Scholarships for young people who do not study or do not work (ninis), 3,600 and 2,400 pesos per month.
3. Fuel Gels
This means that the prices of this fuel can not increase more than the general inflation rate in Mexico.
4. Reduce VAT at the Border
In order to increase consumption in this area, the project of the elected candidate plans to raise this tax from 16% to 8%.
5. Do not raise taxes
This proposal involves keeping the income tax at 35% and VAT at 16%
6. Autonomy from the Central Bank
This would help to avoid unilateral government decisions like setting a ceiling on the reference rate.
7. Maintenance of the FTA
This trade treaty with the United States and Canada will remain in force
[ad_2]
Source link
