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Few doubts that this time, on his third attempt, Andrés Manuel López Obrador would take the presidency of Mexico.
The fast count, the projection of the results of the recorded votes to 5% of the randomly chosen squares, they give a brutal victory: between 53% and 53,8%.
This result is much larger than the polls gave him, which put him in the lead throughout the campaign. His victory is even greater than he imagined.
"The changes will be profound, but will occur in accordance with the established legal order, there will be the freedom of enterprise, freedom of expression, of badociation and of of belief, "he said in his first speech. jpg ” clbad=”img img-responsive image-large”/> Cries, hugs and shouts of emotion did not wait in the center of Mexico to learn the triumph of AMLO. / AFP
In the last part of the campaign, the candidates Ricardo Anaya, of the Por México al Frente coalition, and José Antonio Meade, of the Todos por México coalition, only aspired to take second place.
fast count, Anaya got something more than 22% of votes and Meade something less than 16%. Both accepted promptly their defeat and the triumph of AMLO.
C what were the keys why this time AMLO managed to get the presidency of Mexico?
Several experts consulted by the BBC Mundo speak about [3] main reasons .
1. A more pragmatic, more conciliatory AMLO
" AMLO has unmistakable merit .He and his team insisted on creating an organization basic and have set up a structure that defies and defeat the other parties, "said Sergio Aguayo, political scientist at Colegio de México (COLMEX).
In addition, the successor of Enrique Peña Nieto held a More conciliatory and pragmatic discourse in this campaign, says José Luis Berlanga, expert on political theory at the University of Monterrey (UDEM).
"This time has raised a 'catch-all' movement & # 39; In his alliance fits all who wanted to join, of all colors and flavors, "explains the academic.
That's why he had a less ideological image and more moderate.
Reuters Thus, his campaign was joined by people who previously would have been unthinkable.Among the great examples, let us mention the man of business Alfonso Romo, who stated that he was previously opposed to AMLO and that he will now be his chief of staff.
Also, your campaign coordinator, Tatiana Clouthier. She is the daughter of Manuel Clouthier , candidate in the presidential election of the National Action Party (PAN) in 1988 and also played in the right-wing party until 2005.
But the biggest controversy was caused by the coalition formed with the Social Encounter Party (PSE), ori evangelical, explains Berlanga.
"It's an honor to be with Obrador," chanted his supporters. Reuters AMLO and the PSE are a syndicate that many considered as unnatural
"As a candidate, this allowed him to broaden his votes, even his It remains to be seen what it will be in the government ". said.
Well-known sociologist Roger Bartra, more critical of AMLO, says that the elected president " took a turn towards the great right who approached the former Institutional Revolutionary Party ( PRI). "
The Institutional Revolutionary Party ruled Mexico 77 for the past 89 years, with only two PAN governments intermingled.
"This approach of the old PRI has helped capture the sympathies of disgruntled PRIs with the technocratic turn of the current PRI," he says. He says that AMLO is a " new incarnation of the Latin American tradition of populism ".
2. Voting of Punishment
"In Mexico there is widespread anger mainly because of insecurity and corruption in The various layers of government have contributed to the crisis of the government of Ernesto Peña Nieto, "says Bartra
.In the past six years, major corruption scandals have appeared at all levels.
The one who particularly damaged President Enrique Peña Nieto was "the White House" a property valued at US $ 7 million that belongs to his wife, Angelica Rivera.
The mansion has was sold by Grupo Higa, who received public works contracts at the time when Peña Nieto was governor of the State of Mexico.
In turn, violence in the country continues to The year 2017 was the most san glante of the last decades, with more than 29 000 murders.
The celebration was not long in Mexico City. / Reuters For its part, the expert from the University of Monterrey points out that before this satiety with the government, which is perceived as corrupt, "part of the population perceives in AMLO the possibility of an authentic change. "
Also, the image that they have of AMLO is that it is an honest politician says.
To a certain extent, AMLO also symbolizes the anti-system politician He was still far away from Peña Nieto, has always had a very critical speech against the government and the more traditional parties, he explains.
" He capitalized on this feeling of anger and for the voters it represents the possibility to punish those who have acted badly and who have acted badly, "he says.
3. [19659009] War between the PRI and the PAN [19659002] The experts agree that AMLO was the beneficiary of the war between the PRI and the PAN
Although it is not clear why this fight began , we know that these parties were close during the presidency of Peña Nieto and that at some point a fight began that was not
Bartra says that the agreement between these parties occurred when part of the PAN broke an agreement by which Margarita Zavala was going to be the candidate.
"She was an extremely weak candidate – as it was later, when He resigned – But in this understanding, the PRI had the opportunity to win the elections"
When Ricardo Anaya was appointed, he was seen with a candidate with possibilities, came to ruin the plan, .
Ricardo Anaya acknowledged the triumph of AMLO. / AFP "The wing near the PRI PAN has been angered and there has been a very strong confrontation in which some are gone."
Thus, the government, in concert with the PRI, concentrated its battle not against López Obrador, as was expected, but against Anaya, who became the main enemy .
"And in that they made a terrible mistake, because the more they fought Anaya and the more they used the lawsuits against it, the more AMLO went up. The calculation went wrong" says Bartra.
For Berlanga, the split between PRI and PAN was likely in the elections of the State of Mexico and Coahuila in 2017. The PAN believed that the PRI had kidnapped Coahuila.
The trial continued to escalate until Anaya threatened Peña Nieto to examine him and take him to jail in case he found cases against him. .
In any case, who won was AMLO the badysts are in agreement.
Moreover, this hindered the "useful vote" : a part of the supporters of the PRI and PAN candidates no longer wanted to vote for the candidate who was in second place for the strong grudge between Both sides.
These were the largest elections in history. Anger mingled with hope
Berlanga and Aguayo agree that although some of the Mexicans voted for boredom, they were also motivated by the Hope .
But a less naïve or irrational hope than that experienced in 2000, says COLMEX researcher
"It is known that AMLO is not a miraculous cure, but it is thought he will take the bigger national problems more seriously. "
AMLO will take office on 1 December.
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