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Unlike any other scenario of presidential competition where, as the election approaches, the degree of knowledge of candidates and parties and / or coalitions in gestation increases, Brazil presents a curious circumstance.
Unlike any other scenario of presidential competition where, as the election approaches, the degree of knowledge of candidates and parties and / or coalitions in gestation increases, Brazil presents a curious circumstance. In tune with a contemporary scene convulsed in the institutional, economic and political, today those who would vote in blank, would cancel their vote, do not know who to vote or do not plan to vote on 7 October increased over last year [1]
Increasingly, discontent is gaining systemic contours, widening apathy to future expectations as to the possibilities of redressing tax, social and equity values. Degraded employment, among others. Even in terms of democratic depictions: it's not a detail of the 117 military that will be nominated as candidates in this election, regardless of the leadership positions still occupied in the polls Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), captain of retired army [2].
It is that the Brazilian crossroads has put in tension several elements at once, including its attributes of sovereignty: to the privatizations of recent years, now adds the transfer of shares of Embraer to Boeing. This reinforces the meaning of the times; a neoliberalism that tries to anchor itself as it is, guiding in all possible ways the circulating discourses: proscribe, stigmatize, intervene, let progress of more violent formulas. Any option claiming other perspectives on public affairs must be opposed.
Candidatures, Partisan Spaces and the Electoral Calendar in Brazil
Voting times are getting closer. In a few days (from July 20 to August 5) opens the period for the parties to proclaim who will be these candidates who will represent them. In less than a month, on August 15, candidates must have registered with the Electoral Justice the candidatures; from there, there is no change on the fly, the names will be defined [3]
While the characteristics of the political spaces that will be competing are still in the process of 39, be shaping, which is clear, it is that there will be more fragmentation than in the latest litigation, in which, at least until the first round – during the last presidential elections in Brazil, 2010 and 2014 – there were three rather defined spaces: a center, occupied by Marina Silva (Rede), and two extreme spaces, one more left, represented by the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), and another at right, represented by the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB).
This year – and taking into account the legal insecurity of Lula, on the one hand, and the absence of take-off applications "tucanas", on the other hand the structuring of spaces seems to have a larger center. This new center is reinforced by the movements towards this direction made by the different sides, both Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Jair Bolsonaro himself. This does not mean that the PT and the PSDB will be useless, quite the opposite: as we say in Brasilia, no one will be elected by law without the PSDB, and no one will be elected by the left without the PT
. Lula generates all kinds of unknowns. He is the candidate who, even today, keeps a projection in his intention to vote which exceeds 30%. In addition, the recent fluctuations of judges – disabling their freedom (in progress) and others denying it, in what was an eloquent chapter of the role played by the judiciary in Brazil – only increased the popularity of Lula , as indicated recent studies [4]. The absurdity of the judicial maneuvers on his figure becomes more obvious – in another case, based in the Federal District, his investigation was closed precisely "for lack of solid material evidence" – and evidence of connections is added from the Criminal Division Unit of the United States Department of Justice. in the Lava-Jato case and in all that it can generate in its "anti-corruption" operation [5].
The prison of the candidate with the most intention to vote, added to the low preferences of the other presidential personalities of the left, like Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Manuela D 'Avila (PCdoB), place the Brazilian progressivism at the crossroads. If there is no plan B in the PT – a dominant position within the party – there remains only to support a presidential formula that challenges the center and that n? is not allied to the promoters of the coup Dilma Rousseff. The only option that, for the moment, meets both of these requirements is Ciro Gomes. But only these two. Ciro is not Lula; This is the most progressive electoral spectrum with chances of moving to a second round
Thus, Gomes would be excluded from another possible center-right coalition, sponsored by someone who is looking for for a long time to self-install as champion of national reconciliation. H. Cardoso. It would make converging faces like Marina Silva, the candidate "Tucano" Geraldo Alckmin, and Henrique Meirelles, former Minister of Finance of Michel Temer.
Bolsonaro made the PSDB his place in the political right. The media-judicial conglomerate did the same with PT's place on the left. We will see how the two central coalitions – still in formation – are co-opting to get the decisive votes of the two candidates who position themselves best in the polls, or to convince Brazilians and Brazilians that the center is a desirable option in a devastated Brazil. the corporate interests of the elites.
[1] https://www.cartacapital.com.br/revista/1012/em-campo-o-eleitor-desanimado[19659009_[2] https://www.poder360.com. br / eleicoes / military-se-unem-e-devem-lancar-117-candidates-nestas-eleicoes /
[3] http://www.tse.jus.br/
[4]www. infomoney.com .br / markets / politics / news / 7514597[5] https://www.cartamaior.com.br/?/Editoria/Pelo-Mundo/Estados-Unidos-manejam-to-Lava-Jato -para- destroy-o-Brazil-ea-America-Latina / 6/39001
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