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Following the US legislative elections, Donald Trump participated in 31 campaign events covering more than half of the states in his country. This agenda will remain active by the elections of Tuesday, November 6, after all the American president has played, in the capacity of Republicans to maintain their supremacy in Congress, the freedom with which he acted in various fields, including economic.
Although the party in power has practically secured its majority in the Senate, where only a third of its members are renewed (35 out of 50), in the House of Representatives, Democrats have important options to defeat the Trump party . . According to the latest polls, with a total of 435 seats in play, the opposition clearly has an advantage over 206 seats, versus 198 who dominate their rivals. This is an absolutely open election if we consider that the polls compiled by Real Clear Politics give technical equality to 31 places.
The fight for the budget. For a president whose accomplishments have been essentially economic, such as a 4% unemployment rate and a growth of about 3%, it is not good that the opposition stays with the lower chamber. "If Democrats win the majority, especially in the House, the Trump government will be fundamentally affected," said Patricio Zamorano, executive director of consulting firm Infoamericas.info, explaining that it's there that "you see the budget". and how the treasury is spent. "
Zamorano explains that the" head of state "could be" distorted. "" Although Congress can not block presidential decrees, it can prevent them because they see the budget needed to put them "it would make it more difficult to approve bills dealing with budget issues that it would be likely "a scenario of increased confrontation, greatly increasing the chances of the government's closure."
More uncertainty, in this context, the results of the legislative elections could add greater uncertainty to markets, which are already facing a sell-off, which has cost the S & P 500 a 5% drop since January. [19659002] Investors are not just concerned about the effect that rebalancing power between Democrats and Republicans would have on Trump's pro-market policies. There is another risk, of a political nature, that can destabilize the panorama.
"This affects the possibility of an indictment because Democrats must control the simple majority of the House to start a political indictment against the president," Zamorano explains in any case that it is the Senate that should approve a two-thirds guilty decision to dismiss the president.
In this context, Barclays badysts tried to determine whether the proximity of the elections had occurred. contributed to the recent Wall Street crisis. Although they report in a report to their clients that the stock market "shock" might indicate that the uncertain election event is "valued on the market", the depth of the downgrade puts this thesis in question. They point out that "given the current high level of volatility, it is difficult to discern the volatility" that this electoral process represents.
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