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By the end of the 2000s, the attention of the whole world was turned towards the promising future of emerging markets. The recovery began after the subprime crisis and China has seen strong growth, demanding a large amount of commodities, stimulating the rest of the emerging economies and, at the same time, their markets.
However, everything changed and euphoria gave way to disappointment. China has changed its growth model, which has led to lower expansion rates and reduced appetite for commodities. In addition, the US Federal Reserve has begun the process of normalizing its monetary policy by capturing global capital flows.
All this means that emerging countries fell by 22.05% overall between 2008 and close last Friday. In the opposite direction, the main US stock index S & P 500 rented 88.39% during the same period
. In this context, the sharp decline in the MSCI index of emerging indices shows a direct correlation with the behavior they have shown. the raw materials of this period. The above, because Brent oil fell by 14.9%, WTI by 28.5% and copper by 7.8%.
This chart that experts have described as the lost decade of emerging countries.
Does takeoff begin? What will happen to these markets in the years to come: will the lost decade be prolonged or will a sustainable recovery begin?
For Andrés Abadia, international economist at the Pantheon Macroeconomics, the prospect is complicated by the wave of protectionism seen in recent years. As a result, he said, investors will be more cautious.
"We are likely to see a gradual recovery, as developed economies, particularly the United States, will continue to grow at a brisk pace, but we will have several periods of high volatility in which suffer the most, "he said.
Although you can not put everyone in the same bag, this is at least what Juan Carlos Ureta, president of Renta4 Banco España believes, because, he said, countries in indebtedness in dollars and with significant imbalances, such as Turkey and Argentina, should be distinguished from those who enjoy good "fundamentals" and a favorable position: strong external finances
"We will not be witnessing an emerging general crisis, but a crisis of some economies. On the contrary, several emerging economies, including Chile, have a unique opportunity to make a big leap in value in the coming years, "he said.
Sebastián Vives and Patricio Mackenna, Head of Local and Regional Investments Global, presented a more positive point of view, MCC Itaú Chile, respectively. "Beyond the risks, we are optimistic about the emerging countries. The United States has all the conditions to perform much better than the rest of the world, and we see opportunities for emerging markets to do that. "
That goes against the vision of Capital Economics, whose plans are disastrous.Fortures of these countries in the years to come: China will fall by 4% between the end of this year and the same the 2020 period, that of Brazil will be 5.8%, and Russia is 9.7%.
For its part, Alex Toledo, CEO of Chile Schroders, predicts that emerging economies will experience average growth by 5% in 2018, then slow down a little by 2019, reaching 4.8%.
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