Double estimate of drought loss: US $ 6 billion

The Buenos Aires grain exchange almost doubled its estimate of drought losses from the March estimate. Thus, it went from 3436 million US dollars to nearly 6,000 million US dollars.

The study of the entity indicates that maize production will be about 32 million tons, soybean about 36 million,% and 33%, respectively, compared to expectations at the beginning of the cycle. A total of 27 million tonnes of coarse grains were lost. In value, the total loss almost doubled as the estimate of production continued to decline due to drought.

The losses will strongly affect the contribution of the field to GDP: the fall will be about US $ 5895 million compared to initial estimates. The impact on the growth of the economy is equivalent to 0.86%. In the case of net exports, the decrease will be US $ 5374 million.

The loss is not evenly distributed in the chain. The main link affected is primary production, with a decline in value added of US $ 2,331 million. The drought has also affected meat and milk producers who use corn and soybean meal as inputs and will face higher costs: about US $ 1,000.

Tax revenues would be reduced by US $ 1735 million compared to the baseline scenario based on the decrease in income from withholding taxes when they were exported less and other taxes affected by an activity. less.

The work of the Bolsa de Cereals of Buenos Aires focuses on the direct effects of the reduction of production on the agro-industrial sector, but warns that the macro impact will be "considerably larger" if the Interactions with the rest of the economy sectors are included. For example, the lower level of expenditure of actors whose income depends, directly or indirectly, on the ground.

In Córdoba

For its part, the Córdoba Grain Exchange provides that the gross harvest of the 2017/2018 season in the province will have a cut of nearly 10.3 million tonnes compared to the previous cycle. This is the result of the combination of drought with the rainy season of April and early May.

The entity said that soybean production will fall by 42% and that of corn by 30%. With a 95% advance in the crop, oilseeds round 7,611,100 tonnes. For maize, it is estimated that 11 138 900 tonnes will be harvested, with a harvest advance of 36 percent.

For sorghum, the lowest harvest of the last eight years is forecast at 294,200 tonnes.