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The stimulus measures recently announced by Beijing to thwart a growing trade war with the United States were deemed insufficient.
Forecasters have reduced their estimates of Chinese economic growth in the coming quarters. that the recent measures announced by the government to counter a growing trade war with the United States were considered inadequate.
It is likely that gross domestic product will grow by 6.4% from one year to the next in the last quarter of 2018 before decelerating to 6.3% in the first quarter of 2019 according to 65 economists consulted by Bloomberg. Forecasts, collected between October 22nd and 29th, were revised downward from the estimates of 6.5% and 6.4% respectively of the September survey.
"We are planning a slowdown in 2019 despite the government's attempts to inject stimulants into monetary and fiscal policies," said Patrick Franke, an economist at Helaba in Frankfurt, who participated in the survey. "The trade dispute, including the 25% increase in tariffs, would continue to affect growth."
GDP growth slowed to 6.5% in the third quarter, compared to 6.7% in the second quarter. according to figures released Oct. 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which has not reached the estimate of an increase of 6.6%.
Third quarter growth was marked by the weaker pace of China's economic expansion. China since the period following the global financial crisis of 2009.
The Chinese currency fell Tuesday at the lowest level against the dollar for more than ten years after the announcement of the report According to US President Donald Trump plans to extend tariffs to all imports from China if it does not require Xi Jinping to make concessions at any one time. summit of the most true world leaders of the Group of 20 It will increase at the end of November in Argentina.
At present, the privileges imposed by the United States cover 250 000 million US dollars of Chinese imports. The latest round of tariffs imposing US $ 200,000 million of Chinese products in September was 10%, but it is estimated that it will be 25% in January.
Extension of tariffs to all countries. imports would increase the value of Chinese taxed products by $ 257 billion, on the basis of last year's import figures
Ineffective stimulus
While the Chinese government has launched a new package this month economic stimulus measures to counter the effects of the slowdown, its effectiveness has not yet been felt, according to a series of indicators of early mood gathering Bloomberg Economics in October
. have increased their estimates of consumer price inflation this year and the following year and have reduced their estimates of China's current account surplus as a percentage of GDP B.
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